2021-12-12-瑞士信贷集团-重点转向增长_70页_1mb

Analysis Summary from Credit Suisse's "Asia Financials Strategy"

Overview

• The report focuses on the Asia-Pacific equity research strategy, emphasizing the "focus moves to growth" in financial markets. It highlights the economic recovery post-pandemic, credit revival, and valuation trends across the region. The key themes include strong GDP growth in South Asia and ASEAN, double-digit loan growth in emerging markets, moderation in credit costs, and positive NIM outlooks.

Key Findings

1. Economic Growth: Asia's economic recovery is broadening in 2022, with ASEAN markets expected to see GDP growth up by 150-300 basis points year-on-year. India, Indonesia, and Vietnam are leading in loan growth, revisiting double digits driven by consumer spending and infrastructure investments. China's growth, however, is moderating to 5.5%.
2. Credit Revival: Many markets (e.g., India, Indonesia, Vietnam) are experiencing credit growth rebounds due to negative real rates and economic activity recovery. Credit costs are moderating from surge during the pandemic, with EPS growth projected at 15-30% in ASEAN and India.
3. Net Interest Margin (NIM): NIMs are expected to improve across the region, with most markets seeing 0-20 basis points of gain in 2022, though Australia faces pressure from low rates and competition. Rate hikes are anticipated, providing tailwinds.
4. Valuation: APAC banks trade below long-term averages (1.3 standard deviations), with India and ASEAN being favored for growth. Valuations offer headroom despite recent recovery; some banks with strong fundamentals are undervalued.
5. Market Recommendations: Overweight status assigned to India and ASEAN due to credit growth and cost moderation. China downgraded to underweight due to weaker growth. Top picks include BMRI.JK (Indonesia), BPI.PS and SBIN.BO (India), ICICI.BO (India), and Ping An (China), among others.

Favored Markets and Valuation Summary

• Overweight Markets: India and ASEAN, driven by robust credit and rate expectations.
• Underweight Markets: China, due to slowed growth; Australia downgraded.
• Valuation Notes: Indian and ASEAN markets at 1.3 SD below LT avg., 21% discount to 5-year avg. Unfavourable markets like China and Korea are closer to fair value.

Country-Specific Highlights

• India: Strongest growth outlook; private banks outperforming. Top pick: ICICI Bank and State Bank of India.
• Indonesia: Proactive policies support growth; BNI and BBTN mentioned.
• Thailand: Economic stabilization expected; SCB highlighted as top pick.
• China: Focus on stability; banks like PAB and CIB impacted by property risks.
• Vietnam: Upgraded to overweight due to strong credit growth.
• Australia/SG: Steady growth; CBA downsized, ANZ shielded.

Risks and Opportunities

• Fintech: Increasing disruption in digital banking, but regulations (e.g., in China and Singapore) curb excessive competition. Potential for tech integration benefits incumbents.
• Other Risks: Pandemic uncertainties, variant risks, slower reforms in some regions impact bank asset quality. Credit cost moderation may decline in 2022 following historical levels.
• Valuation: Most banks trading below LT avg., but higher allocations expected with earnings recovery.

Conclusion

• The Asia region shows strong growth dynamics, favoring companies with exposure to credit and NIM improvements. Banks are undervalued, providing opportunities, especially in India and emerging ASEAN markets. Diversification across sectors is key, amid regulatory and fintech shifts.

[The summary is above for reference, but in the boxed format:]
 
# Final Report Summary

- Economic recovery in Asia is broad based, with higher GDP growth expected in ASEAN and South Asia
- Credit growth is reviving in India, Indonesia, and Vietnam with double-digit loan growth
- NIMs are expected to improve in most markets, supported by rate hikes and loan growth
- Valuations are below long-term averages, with India and ASEAN being favored for growth
- Credit Suisse recommends Overweight status for India and ASEAN markets
- Top picks include BMRI.JK, BPI.PS, SBIN.BO, ICICI.BO, and Ping An
- Risks include the pandemic, property issues in China, and competition from fintech