2022-12-23-瑞士信贷集团-Allego-Debt_expansion_in_line_with_target_Covenants_target_strong_growth_9页_659kb

Allego Equity Research Summary (Credit Suisse, 23 Dec 2022)

1. Debt Expansion

• Debt Facility: Expanded credit facility to EUR 400m (from EUR 170m), funding proceeds used for 2023 CAPEX.
• Interest Rate: ~6.5% (6M EURIBOR hedged + 390bps margin).
• Covenant Changes: Covenants now extend to H1 2027, requiring EBITDA (EUR):
  • 2025: EUR 158m (vs. CS estimate EUR 152m)
  • 2024: EBITDA 19.4%
  • 2025: EBITDA 27.3%
• Margins: Interest coverage ratio decreased (2024: 2.3x; 2025: 5.5x)

2. Business & Financials

• Target Price: Unchanged at US$10 (Outperform rating).
• Revenue:
  • 2022E: EUR 138.6m
  • 2023E: EUR 193.9m
  • 2024E: EUR 437.6m
• Valuation Metrics (12M):
  • DCF-based EV: EUR 1,042m
  • P/E (est): 105.3x
  • EV/EBITDA: 294.4x (12/22E)

3. Risks & Opportunities

• Risks:
  • Cash availability
  • Intense competition
  • EV charge equipment supply constraints
  • EV demand slowdown
• Upside Drivers:
  • High backlog of 1,270 sites (fast/ultra-fast chargers)
  • Potential renewable contracts offsetting electricity cost increases

4. Analyst Commentary

• The company will explore non-recourse debt/equity for post-2023 funding.
• €400m facility supports growth through 2023, but additional capital required later.
• Management targets 52-week share price range: US$19.73–$2.20 (from US$3.13).

Financial Highlights

Metric	12/22E	12/23E	12/24E
Revenue (EURm)	138.6	193.9	437.6
EPS (EUR)	-0.03	-0.09	0.01
Adjusted Net Income (EUR)	-7m	-23m	4m