期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-summer1998_39页_4mb

NBER Reporter Summary - Summer 1998

Core Content

The NBER Reporter for Summer 1998 highlights the latest research and developments in corporate finance, investment in emerging markets, and the dynamics of technological change. It also provides information about the NBER's structure, funding, and publications.

Main Research Areas

1. Corporate Finance

• Focus Shift: The NBER's Program on Corporate Finance has moved from studying takeovers and leverage to exploring deeper puzzles such as corporate governance, market efficiency, and the valuation of conglomerates.
• Insider Actions: Research indicates that the market often underreacts to insider signals, such as share repurchases and dividend cuts, allowing insiders to profit from their information.
• Internal Capital Markets: Studies show that internal capital markets in conglomerates may be inefficient, leading to suboptimal investment decisions. Diversified firms tend to misallocate investment resources, with high-Q divisions receiving less investment than standalone firms.
• Credit Supply Volatility: The credit supplied by financial institutions is more sensitive to monetary policy changes for less liquid banks. This supports the existence of a "bank lending channel" of monetary policy transmission.
• Insurance Market Dynamics: The insurance industry, particularly in catastrophe reinsurance, is influenced by balance sheet effects and capital market imperfections. Large catastrophe losses significantly affect insurance prices and quantities.

2. Corporate Governance and Financial Development

• Legal Systems and Investor Protection: Common law countries generally provide better investor protections than civil law countries. This is associated with more developed capital markets.
• Universal Banking: In Germany, banks have historically played a significant role in corporate governance through equity holdings and proxy voting rights. However, this influence has declined as financial markets have become more developed.
• Financial Development and Growth: Financial development supports economic growth by reducing the cost of external finance for financially dependent firms.

Research Summaries

1. The Future of Investment in Emerging Markets

• Overview: Emerging markets offer high average returns, but these are not always sustainable. The research challenges the assumption that historical returns can be reliably used to predict future performance.
• Data Challenges: Emerging market data is often biased due to limited number of securities and historical volatility. The IFC indexes, while useful, may not fully capture the true performance of these markets.
• Volatility and Non-Normality: Emerging markets exhibit extreme volatility, with some having returns that are several times more volatile than developed markets. The distribution of returns is also highly non-normal, affecting portfolio optimization.
• Market Integration: Traditional asset pricing models may not apply to emerging markets due to their lack of integration with global capital markets. The research explores how to determine the point of market integration using regime-switching models.

2. Patents, Patent Citations, and Technological Change

• Innovation and Market Dynamics: The study explores the relationship between patents, patent citations, and the dynamics of technological change. It suggests that the number of patent citations can be a proxy for the impact of innovation on the market.
• Empirical Evidence: Researchers analyze data to show how firms with more citations to their patents tend to have better performance, indicating the value of innovation in the market.

3. The Economics of Mass Migrations

• Migration and Economic Impact: The report discusses the economic implications of mass migrations, focusing on how they affect labor markets, productivity, and economic growth.
• Policy Considerations: It highlights the need for policies that address the challenges of migration, such as integration and employment opportunities.

Key Information

• NBER Overview: The National Bureau of Economic Research is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to the objective quantitative analysis of the American economy.
• Funding and Independence: The NBER relies on funding from individuals, corporations, and private foundations to maintain its independence and flexibility.
• Publications and Working Papers: The NBER has over 5,000 working papers available on its website, along with books and data sets such as the BTR Macroeconomic History Data.
• Erratum: A correction was made in the Spring 1998 issue regarding a subhead in the Program Report.

NBER Profiles and Conferences

• Profiles: The issue includes profiles of NBER researchers, such as Robert W. Vishny and others involved in corporate finance and asset pricing.
• Conferences: Information is provided on upcoming conferences and events related to economic research, including discussions on emerging markets and corporate governance.

Conclusion

The NBER Reporter for Summer 1998 emphasizes the complexity of corporate finance and investment in emerging markets, highlighting the importance of understanding market efficiency, corporate governance, and the impact of legal and financial systems on economic development. It also underscores the need for careful data analysis and the role of financial institutions in shaping market dynamics.