20220323-招银国际-小米集团-W-01810.HK-Premium_strategy_bearing_fruits__Reiterate_BUY_7页_1mb
报告摘要
Xiaomi (1810 HK) Company Update Summary
Core Content
Xiaomi's 4Q21 financial performance exceeded expectations with a 21% YoY revenue growth and a 40% YoY adjusted net profit growth, surpassing both the company's and the market's consensus estimates. This was driven by higher average selling prices (ASPs) in smartphones and smart TVs, with +13% and +20% YoY increases, respectively, as well as a strong performance in advertising revenue and improved margins in AloT/internet services.
The company's premium strategy appears to be yielding results, with better product positioning and user base expansion. Key highlights include:
- Smartphone revenue rebounded by 18% YoY, up from a 0.5% increase in 3Q21.
- AloT/internet services revenue grew by 19% YoY, outperforming the 16% growth in the previous quarter.
- Xiaomi announced a HK$10 billion share repurchase plan, signaling confidence in its financial health.
- The company has over 1,000 staff members dedicated to smart EV R&D, indicating strategic investment in new markets.
FY22E Outlook
Xiaomi is expected to continue its growth trajectory with the following key points:
- EU and LATAM market share gains are anticipated, supported by expanded carrier networks.
- Chip shortage is expected to ease in 2Q22E, following challenges in 1Q22E.
- Smartphone shipment is projected to grow by 11% YoY to 211 million units in FY22E, with a further 9% and 10% YoY growth in FY23E and FY24E, respectively.
- Advertising services are expected to benefit from the expansion of its premium user base and increased overseas presence.
- Revenue growth is forecasted at 16.7% in FY22E, with 16.2% and 16.3% in FY23E and FY24E, respectively.
Valuation and Investment Recommendation
- Current valuation at 12.5x FY22E P/E is well below the 1-standard deviation below the 3-year average of 15.9x.
- The target price (TP) is set at HK$21.8, offering a 54% upside from the current price of HK$14.2.
- Reiterated BUY recommendation, emphasizing the attractive risk-reward ratio.
- Catalysts for the stock include EV progress, product launches, market share gains, internet revenue recovery, and improved ASPs.
Financial Highlights
Earnings Summary (YE 31 Dec)
| Metric | FY20A | FY21A | FY22E | FY23E | FY24E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB mn) | 245,866 | 328,309 | 383,207 | 445,272 | 517,843 |
| YoY growth (%) | 19.4 | 33.5 | 16.7 | 16.2 | 16.3 |
| Adj. Net Income (RMB mn) | 13,006 | 22,039 | 25,427 | 30,668 | 37,214 |
| Adj. EPS (RMB) | 0.54 | 0.88 | 1.02 | 1.23 | 1.49 |
| YoY growth (%) | 11.7 | 63.1 | 15.4 | 20.6 | 21.3 |
| P/E (x) | 23.5 | 14.4 | 12.5 | 10.4 | 8.5 |
| P/B (x) | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| ROE (%) | 16.4 | 13.5 | 17.2 | 16.8 | 16.7 |
Earnings Forecasts
CMBIGM's forecasts for FY22E–FY24E are 8–20% above consensus, driven by a more optimistic outlook on smartphone market share and improved gross profit margins (GPM).
P&L Forecast
| Metric | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22E | FY23E | FY24E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB mn) | 205,839 | 245,866 | 328,309 | 383,207 | 445,272 | 517,843 |
| Gross Profit (RMB mn) | 36,752 | 58,261 | 67,236 | 78,736 | 93,896 | |
| Operating Profit (RMB mn) | 24,035 | 26,029 | 35,963 | 42,109 | 49,722 | |
| Adj. Net Profit (RMB mn) | 13,006 | 22,039 | 25,427 | 30,668 | 37,214 |
Key Ratios
| Metric | FY20A | FY21A | FY22E | FY23E | FY24E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (%) | 19.4 | 33.5 | 16.7 | 16.2 | 16.3 |
| Gross Profit Growth (%) | 28.7 | 58.5 | 15.4 | 17.1 | 19.3 |
| Operating Profit Growth (%) | 104.4 | 8.3 | 38.2 | 17.1 | 18.1 |
| Adj. Net Profit Growth (%) | 12.8 | 69.5 | 15.4 | 20.6 | 21.3 |
Valuation Comparison
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Market Cap (US$ mn) | Price (LC) | TP (LC) | Upside (%) | P/E (x) | P/B (x) | ROE (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xiaomi | 1810 HK | Buy | 45,313 | 14.2 | 21.8 | 54% | 12.5 | 2.3 | 17.2 |
| Sunny Optical | 2382 HK | Hold | 20,263 | 144.6 | 140.5 | -3% | 25.3 | 5.5 | 21.6 |
| AAC Tech | 2018 HK | Hold | 3,063 | 19.8 | 37.4 | 89% | 10.6 | 0.9 | 8.6 |
| BYDE | 285 HK | Hold | 5,573 | 19.4 | 26.4 | 37% | 10.7 | 1.4 | 13.2 |
| FIT Hon Teng | 6088 HK | Buy | 1,057 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 52% | 6.6 | 0.4 | 6.0 |
| Tongda | 698 HK | Buy | 222 | 0.2 | *0.6 | NA | 3.0 | 0.2 | - |
| Q tech | 1478 HK | Buy | 936 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 39% | 7.7 | 1.2 | 15.8 |
| TK Group | 2283 HK | Buy | 245 | 2.3 | *4.1 | NA | 3.6 | 1.5 | 41.7 |
Shareholding Structure
| Shareholder | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Lin Bin | 8.62% |
| Smart Mobile Holdings Ltd | 8.41% |
| Mini Stone | 2.74% |
Share Performance
| Period | Absolute Return (%) | Relative Return (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-mth | -9.1 | -2.3 |
| 3-mth | -23.2 | -19.0 |
| 6-mth | -38.5 | -32.0 |
Conclusion
Xiaomi's premium strategy is showing promising results, with improved ASPs, stronger margins, and increased revenue from smart TVs and advertising. Despite supply chain challenges, the company is expected to continue its growth in FY22E–FY24E, supported by market share expansion in key regions and product upgrades. The current valuation is seen as attractive, with a BUY recommendation and a target price of HK$21.8, offering a 54% upside. The company's financial health and strategic initiatives are key drivers for future performance.
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