20230510-招银国际-小米集团-W-01810.HK-1Q23E_preview__expect_earnings_recovery_on_track__Reiterate_BUY_8页_1mb

报告摘要

Xiaomi is expected to report first-quarter 2023 results in late May. Estimated revenue is HK$59.1 billion (RMB59.088 billion), showing -19% YoY growth, while adjusted net profit is projected at HK$3.08 billion, +8% YoY, exceeding consensus estimates.
The growth is driven by better gross profit margin (GPM) and efficiency improvements, despite smartphone shipment decline. Smartphone shipment fell 22% YoY globally, with steeper drops in India and China, but GPM rebounded to 11%.
AIoT and internet segments face macroeconomic challenges, with revenue declines, but GPM is expected to recover, supporting sequential improvement from H2 2023E.
Earnings are forecasted to recover, with net profit growth projected at 8% in 1Q23E, driven by cost efficiencies. Full-year estimates show net profit growing from FY23E to FY24E and FY25E.
Target price increased to HK$15.44, providing a 36.4% upside, based on a 24x FY24E price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. The stock trades at 18x FY24E P/E, with catalysts including EV progress and market share gains.
Analyst recommendation remains BUY, reflecting confidence in profitability improvements amid macro headwinds, despite short-term challenges.
Key financial metrics include a gross margin of 19.4% for 1Q23E, operating margin at 4.1%, and adjusted net margin at 5.2%. Peer comparisons show Xiaomi as attractively valued relative to competitors.
Disclosures highlight investment risks, potential differences in actual results, and no guarantee of future performance.

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