2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Romania_First_Review_under_the_Stand_80页_1mb

Summary of Romania's First Review under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria

Core Content

This document outlines the results of the First Review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and the request for modification of performance criteria for Romania, which was approved by the IMF Executive Board on March 25, 2011, and became effective on March 31, 2011. The SBA is a 24-month program with an SDR 3,090.6 million (€3.5 billion, US$4.9 billion) credit facility, equivalent to 300 percent of Romania’s quota. The second tranche of SDR 430 million will be released upon completion of the review.

The first review was successfully completed, with Romania meeting all quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets, including those related to arrears clearance, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and public sector financial management. The fiscal performance through April 2011 showed a deficit of 4.4 percent of GDP, which was below the projected deficit due to higher tax revenues and lower expenditures. The program’s objectives include fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, and financial sector stability.

Main Points

1. Macroeconomic Developments and Outlook

• Economic Recovery: Growth is resuming after the 2009–10 downturn, expected to reach 1.5 percent in 2011 and 3.9–4.0 percent in 2012.
• Inflation: Inflation is expected to remain above 5 percent in 2011, with a gradual return to the central bank's target range (3% ± 1 ppt) by 2012. The CPI inflation is projected to be 5.7% by end-2011 and 3.6% by end-2012.
• External Position: The current account deficit is expected to stabilize at under 5% of GDP in 2011–12, with trade balance improvements driven by strong export performance.
• Market Confidence: CDS spreads have declined, the leu has appreciated, and capital inflows have resumed, reflecting improved market confidence.

2. Fiscal Policies

• Deficit Target: Romania is on track to meet the 2011 deficit target of 4.4% of GDP, but the 2012 target of 3% of GDP remains challenging.
• Expenditure Reforms: The 2011 budget included tight spending limits, and reforms in pensions, social benefits, and public employment are continuing to reduce the fiscal burden.
• Arrears Management: The stock-taking exercise confirmed substantial arrears in SOEs and the health sector. The central government and social security arrears declined, but SOEs’ arrears increased to over 4% of GDP.
• Health Sector Reforms: Significant cost-cutting measures are in place, but health expenditures are likely to exceed the budget. A revised budget allocation of 0.2% of GDP is expected during the mid-year budget revision.
• Tax Reforms: Efforts are underway to improve tax collections, fight evasion, and streamline the tax system. A simplified taxation regime is being introduced in key sectors by end-December 2011, and the VAT registration threshold will be increased with support from the EU.

3. Structural Reforms

• SOE Restructuring: Governance reforms include independent audits, quarterly financial reporting, and alignment with OECD principles. The restructuring and arrears clearance of SOEs is a key structural benchmark.
• Transport Sector: Infrastructure projects are being approved using EU structural funds, with a focus on cost-recovery and efficiency improvements. Private participation is being encouraged through minority stakes in CFR Marfa and Tarom.
• Energy Sector: Privatization plans are progressing, with IPOs, strategic sales, and capital increases aimed at attracting private investment. Regulatory reforms include restoring ANRE's autonomy, aligning gas prices, and phasing out regulated prices in electricity and gas. A roadmap for district heating system reform is also being developed.
• Labor and Social Protection: The new Labor Code promotes flexibility in employment and working hours. The Social Dialogue Code was approved and aims to make wage-setting more productivity-oriented. Means-testing is being used to streamline social assistance and reduce the number of beneficiaries.

4. Financial Sector and Monetary Policy

• Financial Stability: The financial sector remains stable, with strong capital buffers and tight supervision. The banking system is being supported by the IMF, EC, and World Bank.
• Monetary Policy: The central bank (NBR) is maintaining inflation targeting, and the exchange rate has appreciated against the euro. The monetary policy aims to stabilize inflation and support growth.

5. Program Modalities and Risks

• Fiscal Space: The fiscal space from the lower-than-expected deficit will be used to address additional spending in the health sector and SOEs.
• Risks: Downside risks include domestic political tensions, spillovers from the euro area, and underlying inflationary pressures. Upside risks include faster recovery of consumer confidence and accelerated structural reforms.
• IMF Support: The IMF is supporting debt management and tax administration reforms. A formal review of the debt management strategy is planned for 2011.

Key Information

• Document Type: Staff Report, Staff Supplement, Press Release, and Statement by the Executive Director.
• Release Date: The staff report was completed on June 9, 2011, and the Executive Board discussion took place on June 27, 2011.
• Program Duration: 24 months, with SDR 430 million available upon completion of the first review.
• Program Nature: Precautionary in nature, with support from the EU and World Bank.
• Targeted Reforms: Focus on energy, transport, health, fiscal, and monetary reforms.
• Public Debt: The public debt sustainability framework is in place, with international reserves meeting the NFA target.
• Next Steps: The medium-term fiscal strategy for 2012–14 is being finalized, and reforms in public procurement and tax administration are progressing.

Conclusion

The Romanian authorities have made significant progress in meeting the performance criteria of the Stand-By Arrangement. However, challenges remain, particularly in achieving the 2012 deficit target, reducing SOE arrears, and implementing structural reforms. The IMF continues to support Romania through technical assistance, monitoring, and policy discussions, with the goal of sustaining economic recovery and improving fiscal and structural sustainability.