2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Kosovo_First_Review_Under_the_Stand_49页_912kb

Summary of the Republic of Kosovo: First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement

Core Content

The Republic of Kosovo's first review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) was completed on June 28, 2012, with the approval of the SBA by the IMF Executive Board on April 27, 2012. The SBA includes a 20-month program with an initial disbursement of SDR 4.251 million, with a second purchase of SDR 39.108 million pending the completion of the review. The staff report outlines the economic developments, policy discussions, and program modalities, while the Executive Board's Press Release summarizes its views.

Main Indicators and Performance

• Quantitative Performance Criteria: All end-April 2012 and continuous quantitative performance criteria were met with comfortable margins.
• Structural Benchmarks: Four out of six structural benchmarks were met, with two exceptions:
  • A slight delay in submitting the revised Deposit Insurance Law.
  • A missed benchmark on including a cost control clause in benefit creating laws, which was corrected.
• Fiscal Sustainability: The program aims to restore a sustainable fiscal position by 2014, with a target of stabilizing public debt-to-GDP at less than 30 percent.
• Government Bank Balances: Adequate levels are expected to be restored by 2013, supported by privatization revenues and one-off financing.
• Fiscal Rule: An IMF technical assistance mission is preparing a legally binding fiscal rule, expected to be enacted in the first half of 2013.

Economic Outlook and Risks

• Growth: Real GDP growth is projected at 3.8 percent for 2012, down from 5 percent in 2011, but still robust.
• Inflation: Consumer price inflation is expected to average less than 1 percent in 2012, reflecting disinflation in imported goods.
• Risks: While direct contagion from the euro area crisis is limited, a deterioration in labor market conditions in host countries of the Kosovar diaspora could depress remittances and FDI, negatively affecting growth, tax revenue, and financial stability.

Key Policy Discussions

A. Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal Adjustment: A total of 1.1 percent of GDP in structural fiscal adjustment was implemented in 2012, with an additional 0.6 percent planned for 2013.
• Budget Implementation: The 2012 budget was implemented in line with the program, with a cumulative primary balance exceeding the program floor by €25 million.
• PAK Integration: The Kosovo Privatization Agency (PAK) has been integrated into the general government budget, and its projected spending for 2012 was increased to €8 million.
• Fiscal Decentralization: Municipalities are granted autonomy to allocate own-source revenues freely across spending categories (except wages), with plans to extend this flexibility to all municipal spending from 2014.

B. Monetary and Financial Policies

• Legal Framework: The legal and regulatory framework for financial supervision has been significantly upgraded.
• Deposit Insurance Law: A revised version of the Deposit Insurance Law was submitted to the Assembly in June, with a slight delay. It permits the use of the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) for purchase and assumption transactions and clarifies responsibilities in bank resolution.
• Central Bank Capacity: The central bank's capacity to provide emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) will be fully established after the completion of this review. The central bank will be funded via a special reserve fund (SRF).
• Regulatory Reforms: Prudential regulations are being revised to align with the Banking and Microfinance Law (BML) and Basel core principles.

C. Competitiveness and Private Sector Development

• Legal Reforms: Twelve laws are expected to be enacted by year-end to streamline business registration and improve Kosovo's ranking in the World Bank's Doing Business Survey.
• Private Sector Support: A joint project with the Austrian Development Agency and Swiss Cooperation Office aims to improve access to financing for SMEs.
• Labor Market: A preliminary report on the Labor Law is being prepared to address labor market flexibility and reduce discrimination against women.
• Energy Sector: Energy distribution privatization has been completed, and the privatization of mining and energy generation is in preparation.

Program Modalities and Modifications

• Performance Criteria Adjustments:
  • The end-August performance criteria for the primary fiscal balance and government bank balances will be revised upward due to early receipt of PTK dividends.
  • PAK-related spending will be excluded from the primary fiscal balance and primary expenditures.
  • The continuous structural benchmark on cost control clauses in benefit creating laws will be removed.
  • A new structural benchmark will be introduced for the launch of the PTK privatization tender by end-August.

Staff Appraisal

• The macroeconomic and financial policies are broadly on track.
• Fiscal targets for 2012 remain achievable, but require vigilance in spending and continued efforts in revenue collection.
• The 2013 budget should continue fiscal consolidation, focusing on current spending restraint and growth-friendly revenue measures.
• The integration of the planned highway R6 into a sustainable framework requires contractual commitments after the completion of the highway R7 project.
• The program emphasizes the importance of thorough prioritization, preparation, and costing of spending initiatives to avoid fiscal risks.

Key Documents and Attachments

• Letter of Intent (LOI): Describes the authorities' progress and outlines performance criteria and structural conditionality through December 2012.
• Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU): Sets out program modalities and conditionality.
• Annex: Debt Sustainability Analysis: Provides an analysis of Kosovo's debt sustainability under the program.

Conclusion

The SBA program is progressing, with the key objectives of restoring fiscal sustainability, strengthening government cash buffers, and improving the resilience of the financial system. The program also includes structural reforms in the fiscal, monetary, and legal frameworks, as well as measures to enhance competitiveness and private sector development. The Kosovo authorities have agreed to the publication of the staff report, and the program is expected to continue with the support of the IMF.