2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Romania_Third_Review_Under_the_Stand_91页_1mb

Summary of Romania's Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement

Core Content

The document outlines the findings and discussions of the Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Romania, conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in late 2011. It includes a staff report, staff supplement, press release, and statement by the Executive Director, all of which assess Romania's economic performance, policy measures, and future outlook under the SBA program.

The SBA, approved in March 2011, is a 24-month program with an SDR 3,090.6 million (€3.4 billion, US$5.0 billion, 300% of quota) credit line. The fourth tranche of SDR 430 million (€475 million) is contingent on the successful completion of the third review. The program is treated as precautionary, with additional support from the European Union (EU) and the World Bank (WB).

Main Views and Key Points

Economic Recovery and Outlook

• Growth: Romania's economy showed signs of recovery in Q3 2011, driven by a strong agricultural harvest and continued industrial output. However, the recovery is expected to be fragile due to regional economic downturns and financial turbulence.
• GDP Growth: Projected to reach 2.0% in 2011 (up from 1.5%), but likely to slow to 1.8% in 2012 due to external challenges. Medium-term growth is expected to remain strong at 3.5–4.0% (2013–2016).
• Inflation: Headline inflation is expected to drop to 3.6% by end-2011, with core inflation at 2.7% in October 2011. Inflation is projected to fall below 3% in the first half of 2012 and gradually rise to the upper end of the central bank’s target band (3% ± 1%).
• Current Account: Expected to remain below 5% of GDP, with a projected deficit of 4.4% in 2011–2012. Exports, particularly in the automotive and agricultural sectors, have improved, helping to stabilize the current account.

Fiscal Policy

• Deficit Targets: Romania is on track to meet the 2011 cash deficit target of 4.4% of GDP and the 2012 cash deficit target of 1.9% of GDP, with the EU accrual deficit expected to be under 3% of GDP.
• Fiscal Adjustments: A wage and pension freeze, along with reductions in public employment, are key measures to control expenditures. Additional EU support is expected to help offset the impact of these measures.
• Arrears Reduction: Central government and social security arrears were met, and health sector arrears were largely cleared. However, challenges remain in local governments and state-owned enterprises (SOEs), with plans for further measures to reduce arrears by RON 3 billion before the end of 2011.
• Fiscal Reforms: The 2012 budget includes measures to increase revenues and reduce expenditures, such as excise rate hikes, tightening of VAT registration criteria, and cuts in subsidies and social assistance.

Structural Reforms

• SOE Reforms: Progress has been made in restructuring and improving governance of SOEs, with ongoing efforts to reduce arrears and advance privatization. However, some delays persist.
• Healthcare Reforms: A new healthcare system framework is being prepared, aiming to enhance efficiency and reduce public expenditure. The claw-back tax and copayment law are expected to be enacted to control drug overconsumption and improve budget discipline.
• EU Funds Absorption: While EU fund absorption has improved since 2010, it remains weak. The government has approved a list of 100 priority projects and is working on improving the quality of public investment and the efficiency of fund utilization.

Financial Sector and Monetary Policy

• Financial Stability: The financial sector is expected to remain stable, with IMF and ECB staff involved in joint discussions. The sovereign CDS spread has risen due to euro area turbulence, leading to leu depreciation and domestic interest rate increases.
• Debt Management: The government has launched a euro medium-term note program and is working to build foreign currency buffers to manage external shocks. They are also improving the domestic yield curve and strengthening debt management capacity through technical assistance.

Key Documents and Releases

• The staff report was completed on December 5, 2011, following discussions with Romanian officials.
• The staff supplement, press release, and statement by the Executive Director provide additional insights into the review and policy discussions.
• Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding are also included in the package.
• The policy of publication allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information.

Conclusion

The review highlights Romania's continued economic recovery and progress in fiscal and structural reforms, but also underscores ongoing challenges in maintaining growth and financial stability amid external shocks and internal inefficiencies. The IMF staff and Romanian authorities agree on the precautionary nature of the program and the need for sustained fiscal restraint and structural improvements to support long-term economic development.