2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Honduras_First_Review_Under_the_Stand_62页_974kb

Honduras: First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Standby Credit Facility

Core Content Overview

This document outlines the first review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and Standby Credit Facility (SCF) for Honduras, conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff in 2011. It includes the Staff Report, Staff Statement, Press Release, and Statement by the Executive Director. The review assesses economic developments, performance under the program, and policy discussions from October 2010 to March 2011, with a focus on fiscal and monetary policies, structural reforms, and the external economic environment.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Program Context and Approval

• The SBA/SCF blended arrangements were approved by the IMF Executive Board on October 1, 2010, with a total of SDR129.5 million (100% of quota).
• An initial disbursement of SDR35.61 million (27.5% of quota) became available, but not yet made.
• The program supports the government's goals of reducing the public sector deficit, improving expenditure quality, upgrading monetary and exchange rate policy frameworks, and protecting the external position.

2. Program Review

• The first review was completed on April 13, 2011, following discussions with Honduran officials.
• All end-2010 performance criteria were met, with significant overperformance of the NIR (Net International Reserves) target.
• Structural reforms advanced, though some delays occurred in pension reform and electricity tariff adjustments.
• Understanding was reached on proposed performance criteria and structural benchmarks for June–December 2011.
• The authorities plan to treat the arrangement as precautionary.

3. Macroeconomic Strategy and Outlook

• The 2011 macroeconomic strategy remains consistent with the original program.
• Real GDP growth is projected at 3.5%, while inflation is expected to rise to 8% due to higher international food and fuel prices.
• The external current account deficit is projected to increase to 7% of GDP, but coffee exports and remittances may help offset this.
• Net international reserves are expected to rise by US$227 million in 2011, on top of a large increase in 2010.

4. Policy Discussions

A. Fiscal Policy

• The government is committed to lowering the fiscal deficit and stabilizing the public debt-to-GDP ratio at 30%.
• For 2011, the combined public sector deficit is targeted at 3% of GDP, while the central government deficit is at 3.5% (down from 4.8% in 2010).
• Tax reforms and strengthening tax collections are critical to achieving fiscal targets.
• The authorities plan to submit an anti-evasion law to Congress in April 2011 and conduct a taxpayer census by September.
• Social spending is protected, with a budget allocation of 1.5% of GDP for all social programs.

B. Monetary and Financial Sector Policies

• The central bank aims to contain inflation and safeguard the external position.
• It has increased the placement of its own securities to mop up liquidity and maintained a policy rate of 4.5%.
• A monetary policy framework upgrade is underway, including the development of interbank and secondary markets, improvement of liquidity instruments, and increased signaling content of the policy rate.
• The financial safety net and regulatory framework are being reformed to enhance transparency, information sharing, and user protection.
• The central bank is committed to not extending credit to the public sector and to tighten the monetary stance if inflation pressures increase or if the NIR target is threatened.

C. Social Spending

• Poverty reduction is a key government objective.
• The conditional cash transfer program (Bono 10mil) has expanded its reach to nearly 300,000 families.
• Staff supports the review of social programs to better target resources to those in greatest need, especially in light of rising food and fuel prices.

5. Program Modalities

• The Letter of Intent (LOI) and Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) outline the authorities' commitments through December 2011.
• The MEFP proposes revised targets for NIR and net domestic assets for the remainder of 2011, reflecting the better-than-expected balance of payments in 2010.
• A waiver of applicability is requested for end-March 2011 performance criteria, as data were not available at the time of the review.
• The program conditionality is being modified as proposed.

6. Staff Appraisal

• Honduras has made positive progress under the SCF/SBA, contributing to moderate economic recovery in 2010.
• The recovery was supported by stronger macroeconomic policies, favorable external conditions, and key structural reforms.
• Strict adherence to the 2011 budget is essential for fiscal improvement and sound macroeconomic management.
• The tax reform and improved tax administration are seen as crucial for revenue growth.
• Monetary policy and exchange rate stability are important for inflation control and external position protection.
• The staff supports the completion of the first review and the waiver of applicability for the end-March 2011 targets.

Key Boxes and Figures

Box 1: Tax Revenue Performance

• Tax revenue declined from 16.4% of GDP in 2007 to 13.6% in 2010, a drop of 2.7 percentage points.
• The decline was partly due to weak tax administration and lagged effects of the 2009 recession.
• The 2010 tax reform is expected to yield 1% of GDP, but implicit revenue losses of 0.6% of GDP offset this.
• 2011 tax revenue is projected to increase by 0.6% of GDP, reflecting full-year impact of the tax reform and improvements in tax administration.

Box 2: Central Government Domestic Debt

• Domestic debt rose from 4.8% of GDP in 2008 to 13% of GDP in 2010, due to short-term bond issuance and accumulating arrears.
• The repayment schedule is concentrated, creating financing pressures in the coming years.
• A refinancing strategy was initiated in 2010, replacing 1.4% of GDP in short-term bonds with 3-5 year bonds at 8.25–10% interest rates.
• In early 2011, two voluntary bond conversions were completed, totaling 1.2% of GDP, converting existing bonds into 3–7 year instruments with 9–12.25% coupon rates.

Conclusion

The IMF staff commends the Honduran government for its progress in fiscal consolidation, monetary policy, and structural reforms. It encourages continued implementation of tax reforms, improvement in tax administration, and modernization of monetary policy. The first review under the SBA/SCF is completed, and the waiver of applicability for end-March 2011 targets is supported due to data unavailability. The program conditionality is modified as proposed, and the government is encouraged to maintain precautionary measures to ensure macroeconomic stability and public financial sustainability.