2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Romania_Seventh_Review_Under_the_Stand_101页_2mb

报告摘要

Romania: Seventh Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for a New Stand-By Arrangement

Core Content

This document outlines the seventh review under Romania's Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), the cancellation of the current SBA, and the request for a new SBA. The new 24-month SBA is valued at SDR 3,090.6 million (€3.5 billion, US$4.9 billion, 300 percent of quota). It is supported by the European Union (on a precautionary basis) and the World Bank. The new program is designed to provide precautionary support against future economic shocks and to continue Romania's economic adjustment.

Main Points

1. Economic Recovery and Performance

Economic stabilization has been achieved, with growth resuming in Q4 2010 and expected to reach 1.5 percent in 2011 and 4–4.5 percent in 2012.
Inflation peaked at 8.0 percent in December 2010 and is expected to return to the central bank's target range of 3 percent ± 1 ppt by the second half of 2011.
The current account deficit improved from 13.5 percent of GDP in 2007 to 4.25 percent in 2010, and is projected to stabilize around 4–5 percent of GDP in 2011–12.
Public debt sustainability has improved, and external debt sustainability remains stable under the current program.

2. Program Completion and New SBA

The seventh review was completed, and performance criteria were met except for the general government arrears criterion, which was already waived.
The current SBA is being canceled, and the new SBA will provide precautionary support for the future.
The new program will focus on fiscal adjustment, structural reforms, and financial sector stability.

3. Key Issues Addressed

Fiscal compliance: Measures to ensure adherence to fiscal targets.
Structural reforms: Progress on reforms in the energy, transport, pension, public wages, and social benefits sectors.
Financial sector stability: Continued supervision and reform of the banking sector to maintain stability and liquidity.

Program Elements

A. Overall Program Objectives

Continue fiscal adjustment while improving revenue and expenditure efficiency.
Boost growth potential through structural reforms and economic flexibility.
Foster confidence and improve private capital flows by enhancing policy stability and the business climate.

B. Macroeconomic Framework and Risks

The new program is based on a forecast of gradual growth and stable current account.
Inflation is expected to return to target levels by mid-2011, with further disinflation toward 3 percent in 2012.
Current account deficit is projected to stabilize at 4–5 percent of GDP in 2011–12.
Risks include domestic political tensions, slow recovery in Western Europe, and spillovers from the euro area periphery, which could dampen exports and increase risk premia. On the upside, faster-than-expected recovery in consumer confidence and improved EU funds absorption could boost growth and increase current account deficits.

C. Fiscal Policies

Fiscal adjustment is on track, with the end-December 2010 deficit target met by a substantial margin.
Cash deficit for 2011 is expected to be 4.4 percent of GDP, and for 2012, near 3 percent.
Tax reforms are central to the new program, with a focus on revenue neutrality, simplification, and improved tax administration.
Expenditure efficiency is a priority, including the elimination of arrears, reforms in the health sector, and reduction of public employment.

D. Structural Reforms

A comprehensive SOE reform strategy is planned, particularly in the energy and transport sectors, with a focus on pricing reforms, regulatory improvements, and privatization.
Pension reforms aim to increase retirement ages, move indexation from wages to inflation, and reduce incentives for early retirement.
Public wage reforms are in place, with a unified wage scheme to be fully effective over time.
Social benefits are being reformed to improve efficiency and reduce costs.
Health sector reforms include the reduction of public hospital beds, use of generic drugs, and the introduction of electronic health records.

E. Financial Sector Policies

The banking sector has remained well-capitalized and liquid, with an average capital adequacy ratio of 14.7 percent.
Non-performing loans are increasing but at a declining rate, with an expected peak in mid-2011.
The European Bank Coordination Initiative (EBCI) has helped stabilize the financial sector, and discussions on its extension are ongoing.
Deposit guarantee schemes and bank resolution frameworks have been strengthened.

F. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

The leu has remained relatively stable since mid-2007, improving competitiveness by around 15 percent.
The Central Bank of Romania (NBR) has maintained liquidity and capital adequacy in the banking sector.
Monetary policy aims to maintain price stability and support the real effective exchange rate.

Program Modalities

Access: The new SBA will provide financial support to Romania.
Capacity to Repay: Romania's fiscal and external position is stable, with reduced deficit and improved reserves.
Monitoring and Conditionality: The new program will include structural benchmarks and performance criteria, with adjustments if needed.

Staff Appraisal

The current program has been successful, with fiscal consolidation and financial sector stability achieved.
Structural reforms have made progress, but further action is required to eliminate arrears and improve efficiency.
The new program is expected to boost growth, improve fiscal sustainability, and enhance competitiveness for eventual euro area entry.

Key Documents Included

Staff Report: Summarizes the economic discussions and performance under the SBA.
Staff Supplement: Assesses risks to the Fund and liquidity position.
Letter of Intent: Requests early cancellation of the current SBA and approval of the new SBA.
Technical Memorandum of Understanding: Outlines program details and conditions.

Conclusion

The Romanian economy has shown signs of recovery and stability, with fiscal consolidation and financial sector reforms contributing to this. The new SBA will provide precautionary support, ensuring continued adjustment and growth potential. Structural reforms remain a key focus, particularly in the health, pension, and public sector efficiency areas. The program's success depends on continued fiscal discipline, improved tax administration, and effective implementation of reforms.