2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Romania_Sixth_Review_Under_the_Stand_64页_1mb

Romania: Sixth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the results of the IMF's sixth review under Romania's Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), conducted in late 2010 and early 2011. It includes the staff report, supplementary information, press release, and a statement by the Executive Director and Senior Advisor for Romania. The report details Romania's economic developments, fiscal and structural reforms, and the status of the SBA program.

Key Information

• Program Status: The SBA program is broadly on track, with most performance criteria for end-September 2010 met. The only exception is the criterion on general government arrears, which the authorities have committed to keeping near zero for the remainder of the program.
• Fiscal Performance: The fiscal deficit and current spending targets for end-September 2010 were exceeded. The authorities are expected to meet the 2011 deficit target of 4.4% of GDP, with a structural deficit projected to fall to around 1.5% of GDP by 2011.
• Inflation: Inflation peaked at around 8% in late 2010 due to the VAT increase and food price pressures, but is expected to return to the central bank's target range of 3% ±1 percentage point by end-2011.
• External Position: The current account deficit improved from 13.5% of GDP in 2007 to 5% of GDP in 2010, with a projected deficit of 5.5% of GDP in 2010 and 6% by 2012. Net foreign assets were met with a margin of €3.7 billion in end-September 2010.
• Banking Sector: The banking system remains well-capitalized and liquid, with an average capital adequacy ratio of 14.6% in end-September 2010. Non-performing loans (NPLs) rose to 11.7% of total loans, but the sector has adequate buffers. The authorities are concerned about the potential for additional losses due to Ordinance 50.
• Structural Reforms: Key reforms in public sector wages and employment are progressing, with the unified wage law expected to be approved by mid-December 2010. The pension reform was enacted by year-end 2010. Reforms in the labor market and social benefits are also ongoing to improve efficiency and growth prospects.
• Program Modality: A 24-month SBA of SDR 11.443 billion (€12.95 billion) was approved in May 2009. The seventh tranche of SDR 769 million will be made available after this review.
• IMF Concerns: Implementation challenges persist, especially in maintaining wage cuts and controlling public expenditures. The staff is concerned about delays in the lending ordinance modification and the potential for political and judicial pressures to reverse fiscal adjustments.

Main Views and Recommendations

1. Economic Outlook

• Growth: GDP is expected to fall by 1.9% in 2010 and grow by 1.5% in 2011, with stronger growth anticipated from 2012 onwards.
• Inflation: CPI inflation is projected to peak at slightly above 8% in late 2010, then decline to 3.7% in 2011 and 3.0% in 2012.
• External Position: The current account deficit is projected to remain around 5.5% of GDP in 2010 and rise slightly to 6% by 2012. The government is expected to maintain its presence in external markets through more flexible financing procedures.

2. Fiscal Policies

• Fiscal Adjustment: The fiscal adjustment is taking hold, supported by tax yields, expenditure control, and public employment streamlining.
• 2011 Budget: The 2011 budget relies on the continued implementation of 2010 adjustment measures and expenditure restraint. The authorities are expected to meet the fiscal targets.
• Challenges: Implementation of key elements of the fiscal adjustment faces political and judicial pressures. The government must maintain wage cuts and avoid overruns in healthcare spending.

3. Structural Reforms

• Public Sector Reforms: The unified wage law and pension reform are key structural benchmarks. The unified wage law is expected to be approved by mid-December 2010, and the pension reform enacted by year-end.
• Healthcare Reforms: Significant reforms are required in the healthcare sector to reduce costs and prevent arrears. These include introducing copayments, rationalizing the hospital network, and restructuring healthcare contracts.
• Social Benefits Reform: A new means-tested social benefits scheme is being developed to consolidate existing benefits and improve efficiency. Inspections are being expanded to detect and prevent fraud.

4. Financial Sector Stability

• Banking System: The banking system remains well-capitalized and liquid, with all banks above the statutory minimum capital adequacy ratio of 8%.
• NPLs: NPLs are expected to continue rising through mid-2011 due to weak economic activity. The authorities are concerned about the impact of Ordinance 50 on the banking sector.
• Lending Trends: Lending to the private sector has been flat since 2009, while government lending has increased to 20% of total bank loans, though crowding-out effects are limited.

5. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

• Monetary Conditions: Monetary conditions have eased, supporting lower interest rates. The National Bank of Romania (NBR) has paused further policy loosening, but the nominal effective exchange rate has weakened slightly.
• Exchange Rate: The weakening of the leu is expected to continue, with central bank interventions helping to stabilize currency fluctuations.

Key Issues

• The review focused on three main issues:
  1. Measures in the 2011 budget to ensure fiscal compliance.
  2. Progress on the structural reform agenda.
  3. Efforts to maintain financial sector stability.

Conclusion

The staff report concludes that the program remains broadly on track, with most performance criteria met. However, there are significant implementation challenges, especially in the areas of wage control, healthcare expenditure, and the potential impact of new legislation on the banking sector. The authorities are committed to meeting all prior actions by year-end, but vigilance is needed to ensure continued fiscal and structural progress.