2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Romania_Fifth_Review_Under_the_Stand_94页_1mb

Romania: Fifth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement Summary

Core Content

The Fifth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Romania, conducted by the IMF staff in June 2012, assessed the country's economic developments, policy implementation, and compliance with program targets. The SBA, approved in March 2011, was a 24-month arrangement with a total of SDR 3,090.6 million (€3.4 billion, US$5.0 billion), representing 300 percent of Romania's quota. The sixth tranche of SDR 430 million (€509 million) would be released upon completion of the review.

Main Points

Program Status

• Romania met all but two performance criteria for the fifth review: central government arrears and local government arrears.
• Progress on the structural reform agenda was uneven, with some reforms completed and others requiring further action.
• The authorities requested a modification to the Net Foreign Assets (NFA) target and the general government balance ceiling.
• The new government, led by Prime Minister Victor Ponta, reaffirmed its commitment to the Fund-supported program.

Economic Performance

• Growth: Expected to moderate in 2012 to around 1.5 percent, down from 2.5 percent in 2011, due to the euro area slowdown and weak private demand.
• Inflation: Projected to remain within the central bank's target band of 3 ± 1 percent for 2012, with core inflation likely to stay below 2.5 percent.
• Current Account: Projected to remain around 4.4 percent of GDP in 2012, with a slight increase expected in 2013.
• Fiscal Deficit: The general government cash deficit for 2012:Q1 was 0.6 percent of GDP, slightly below the target. However, arrears in both central and local government rose, breaching program targets.

Structural Reforms

• The energy and transport sectors are central to the reform agenda.
• The authorities have approved a roadmap for the deregulation of electricity and gas prices, aiming to gradually shift them to market levels.
• A draft health care framework law was withdrawn due to public backlash, and a new version is expected by end-June, with parliamentary approval by end-October.
• The health sector is identified as the largest fiscal risk due to its reliance on government transfers and aging population.

Financial Sector

• Bank lending grew moderately, but nonperforming loans (NPLs) increased, reaching 15.9 percent of total loans in March 2012.
• Prudential provisions were sufficient to cover 99 percent of NPLs, with a new IFRS provisioning ratio of 68.4 percent.
• The central bank intervened to limit leu depreciation, keeping it below 3 percent since the end of 2011.

Risks and Outlook

• Growth Risks: Continued euro area weakness and financial market turbulence pose a significant downside risk.
• Inflation Risks: Potential for inflation to rise due to higher oil prices, exchange rate pressures, or unexpected commodity price increases. Conversely, the large output gap could lead to lower core inflation.
• Fiscal Risks: Arrears in the public sector and potential pressure to relax fiscal consolidation and structural reforms due to upcoming elections.

Policy Measures

• The government plans to use additional fiscal space to increase public sector wages by 8 percent and compensate pensioners for illegal social contribution payments.
• A clawback tax on pharmaceuticals will be used to pay down overdue bills and reduce arrears.
• Integration of accounting and payment systems for all levels of government is underway, with a proposed benchmark to launch the tender for software by June 30, 2012.
• The government is working to improve the absorption of EU structural funds, aiming to absorb €6 billion in 2012, but progress has been slow.

Key Information

• Quantitative Performance Criteria: Missed on central and local government arrears, but met on most other targets.
• Fiscal Adjustments: The cash deficit target was relaxed slightly to 2.2 percent of GDP, with the accrual deficit still below 3 percent.
• EU Funds Absorption: Only 7.4 percent of available funds were certified as absorbed by the end of the first quarter of 2012.
• Debt Sustainability: The government has built a significant fiscal buffer, and the planned DPL-DDO loan from the World Bank is expected to further increase it.
• Exchange Rate: Leu depreciation was limited to just over 3 percent since the end of 2011 due to central bank intervention.

Summary of Key Documents

• Staff Report: Prepared by the IMF staff, completed on June 11, 2012, and updated on June 18, 2012.
• Press Release: Summarized the Executive Board's discussion on the staff report on June 22, 2012.
• Statement by the Executive Director: Provided insights into Romania's economic situation and program implementation.
• Letter of Intent: Sent by Romanian authorities to the IMF.
• Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP): Outlined the policy commitments and reform plans.
• Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU): Detailed the program's modalities and adjustments.

Program Modalities and Modifications

• The program includes a precautionary element, with additional funding from the EU and World Bank.
• The cash deficit target was slightly relaxed, but the accrual deficit remains under the EU's 3 percent of GDP threshold.
• The NFA target and general government balance ceiling were adjusted to reflect the new fiscal space.
• The health care reform and SOE reforms are key structural priorities, with progress made but more work needed.

Conclusion

Romania's economic recovery remains fragile, with growth expected to moderate in 2012. The country has made progress in fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, but challenges remain, particularly in the health sector and public sector arrears. The government's commitment to the program is strong, but political pressures and external risks may affect the pace and effectiveness of reforms. The IMF continues to monitor the situation closely and is supportive of Romania's efforts to stabilize its economy and meet its program targets.