2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Romania_First_and_Second_Reviews_Under_the_Stand_106页_1mb

报告摘要

Romania IMF Stand-By Arrangement Review Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the results of the first and second reviews under Romania's Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and includes requests for a waiver of non-observance of a performance criterion, modification of program conditionality, and rephasing of the availability dates of purchases. It also contains a Staff Report, Press Release, and a Statement by the Executive Director for Romania.

Key Information

Stand-By Arrangement: A 24-month SBA with access to SDR 1,751.34 million (about €1.98 billion, 170% of quota) was approved on September 27, 2013. The second and third tranches of SDR 194.7 million each would be made available upon completion of the first and second reviews.
Balance-of-Payments Assistance: €2 billion is available from the European Union (EU).
Performance Criteria and Indicative Targets: Four of five end-December 2013 performance criteria and four of five indicative targets were met. One performance criterion and one indicative target were missed.
Structural Reforms: The government successfully completed initial public offerings (IPOs) in two state-owned energy companies and increased the number of shares to be sold in another. However, the privatization of Marfa, the state-owned freight railway company, was not completed.
Fiscal Policy: The 2014 budget targets a 2.2% GDP deficit, with a structural effort of 0.3% of GDP. The fiscal deficit for 2013 was 2.5% of GDP, slightly exceeding the performance criterion due to higher-than-expected EU co-financing.
EU Funds Absorption: EU funds absorption has improved, supporting investment and fiscal adjustment. The budget includes measures to manage EU co-financing and reduce the deficit.
Program Modalities: The authorities requested a waiver for the missed performance criterion and modifications to conditionality. A new indicative target on Marfa's arrears and five new structural benchmarks were proposed.
Financial Sector: The banking system faces challenges due to high non-performing loans (NPLs), with NPLs at 21.9% of total assets at the end of 2013. The central bank has taken steps to improve asset quality, but credit growth remains constrained.

Main Views and Recommendations

Staff Recommendations: The staff recommends completing the first and second reviews, supporting the waiver request for the missed performance criterion, and adjusting the program conditionality and availability dates of purchases.
Macroeconomic Performance: Romania's economy has shown resilience against recent financial market volatility, with GDP growth of 3.5% in 2013 and a narrowing current account deficit.
Exchange Rate and Capital Flows: The exchange rate has remained stable due to central bank support, and capital inflows have been strong, particularly from international bond placements and EU funds.
Fiscal Challenges: The fiscal deficit for 2013 was slightly over the performance criterion due to unexpected EU co-financing. The government has taken steps to manage this through a budget buffer and potential tax adjustments.
Structural Reforms: The government has made progress on structural reforms, including the IPOs and energy price increases, but the privatization of Marfa was not completed. The authorities have initiated a restructuring plan for Marfa, with a sale expected in May 2015.
Political Risks: Political tensions are rising, particularly ahead of the European parliamentary and presidential elections. These risks could affect the implementation of the program and the government's commitment to structural reforms.

Key Issues

Performance Criteria: One performance criterion (general government overall balance) and one indicative target (SOE arrears) were not met.
Program Status: The authorities met seven of nine structural benchmarks.
Fiscal Policy: Fiscal policy is aligned with medium-term budgetary objectives, and the 2014 budget includes measures to manage EU co-financing and reduce the deficit.
Financial Sector: The financial sector faces challenges, including high NPLs and a decline in credit to the private sector.
Political Uncertainty: Political tensions are increasing, which could impact the stability of policy discussions and investor confidence.

Economic Outlook and Risks

Growth Outlook: The baseline scenario projects a 2.2% GDP growth for 2014, with a pick-up in non-agricultural growth and improved EU funds absorption.
Inflation: Inflation is expected to remain subdued in the first quarter of 2014 but will rise in the second half due to base effects and price hikes.
Current Account: The current account deficit is projected to widen slightly to 1.5–2% of GDP in 2014–15 as domestic demand recovers.
Exchange Rate and Reserves: Gross international reserves are expected to decline to €30 billion by end-2015, but a flexible exchange rate and a buffer of more than four months of projected fiscal financing needs provide some insurance against external shocks.
Risks: Risks to the economic outlook include continued household and corporate deleveraging, monetary policy tightening in advanced economies, and political uncertainty leading to potential instability in policy implementation and investor sentiment.

Document Structure

Introduction: Overview of economic developments and program status.
Recent Economic Developments: Analysis of GDP growth, inflation, current account, and capital flows.
Outlook and Risks: Projections for 2014 and potential risks.
Program Policies: Details on fiscal, monetary, financial sector, and structural reforms.
Program Modalities: Conditionality, repayment capacity, and updates to safeguards.
Staff Appraisal: Staff views on program implementation and recommendations.
Boxes and Figures: Additional insights and data visualizations on current account, minimum wage, NPLs, and IPOs.
Tables: Quantitative program targets, performance for reviews, and economic indicators.
Annex and Appendices: Additional documents such as the Public and External Debt Sustainability Analysis, Letter of Intent, and Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies.