20250618-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_6页_853kb

Fixed Income Credit Commentary Summary (June 11-18, 2025)

1. Bond Market Updates

• Hong Kong Market:

  • HYNMTR Float 27: 5bps tighter than reference offers (RO) today, continuing the tightening trend from ROs.
  • SHIKON: 3bps wider than RO amid mixed flows.
  • MTRC 4.875 Perp: Unchanged, slightly higher (0.1pt) than RO.
  • NSINTW 34: 5bps tighter than RO, supported by SHIKON new issue.
  • Chinese Properties: Residential sales improved, with some developers showing YoY growth (e.g., YUEXIU, CHJMAO); bottom performers saw significant decline (FUTLAN, GEMDAL).

• Market View (June 18 Trading Desk Comments):

  • CNOOC/BABA:价格上涨 due to profit-taking after UST yield tightening.
  • Chinese IGs (MEITUA, HAOHUA, BABA): Spreads widened slightly due to profit-taking.
  • Bonds related to Chinese IS: NANYAN/SHCMBK widened amid mixed flows.
  • Offshore Asia: SOFR+ Swaps tightened due to FOMC outcomes; oil and gas bonds (KOROIL/KORWAT) widened.

• Offshore Asia New Issues (Pipeline):

  • Yixin Innovation Technology planned a USD300m USD denominated 3-year bond at 5.99%.

2. Macroeconomic Update:

• US Markets: Down across the board (S&P, Dow, Nasdaq) due to weak retail sales (-0.9% MoM).
• Fed Yields: 2/5/10/30yr UST yields at 3.94%/3.99%/4.39%/4.88%.
• Global Conflicts: Israel-Iran tensions increasing, causing military movements.

3. Event-Driven Highlights:

• CNOOC’s 4.75% 2044 bond: Strong buy demand, closed at 95.7+.
• Biggest Movers: CNOOC (+0.8 pts), BABA (+0.8 pts), NWDEVL (-0.6 pts).
• Corporate News:
  • Moody’s views on Cinda AMC, Nanyang Bank, Shuifa Holdings.
  • ReNew Energy Global reported 14.4% YoY EBITDA growth.
  • Vedanta aims to sell 1.6% stake in HZL for cUSD350m.
  • State-owned banks funding Vanke’s SJ metro loans.

4. Policy & Market Outlook:

• Economic Stimulus: Widened fixed-rate lending in China expected in H2’25 to boost property market.
• Onshore market: Credit bonds issued totaling RMB1.1tn YTD (28.4% YoY increase).

5. Risk & Analyst Disclaimers:

• Focus on yield curve movements, credit spread changes, country-specific risks, and profit-taking opportunities.
• US regulations restrict CMBI from officially endorsing transactions in the U.S.