20230911-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_6页_1023kb

Fixed Income Credit Commentary Summary - 11 Sep 2023

Market Overview

• Asian IG space widened 1-3bps; AMCs and TMT sectors broadened with limited flows. HK real estate retreated amid rumors HSBC may lift lock-in rate cap, with NWDEVL perps down 4-65bps. Offshore Asia markets were quiet on Friday, with small moves in Chinese TMT/SOE and high-beta names.

China AMCs

• Priorities repayment over reporting due to sector volatility from Country Garden debt restructuring and Great Wall's reporting delay. Recommended papers: HRINTH 375 (05/29/24, YTM 10.5%), HRINTH 550 (01/16/25, YTM 11.2%), HRINTH 425 Perp (callable 09/30/25), GRWALL 395 Perp (callable 07/31/24, yield pickup 771bps), and CCAMCL 44 Perp (callable 03/11/26). Shorter tenors favored due to "higher for longer" rates outlook.

China Economy

• CPI growth rebounded to 0.1% in August, driven by services and energy prices, while durable goods demand remained weak. PPI dropped 2.7% expected in 2023 before rising 1.3% in 2024 under credit easing. Mild reflation anticipated with de-stocking alleviation.

Trading and Market Updates

• Top performers: CHINSC (-170bps), GRNLGR (-1.4%). Underperformers: VNKRLE (+10.9%). Notable events include S&P downgrade of Seazen to 'B+', Dalian Wanda's debt repayment, and property-related news.

Analyst Comments

• Reiterates China AMC sector stability with strong government support; advises on specific credit papers with key dates and coupons. Offshore new issues pipeline includes projects from various issuers.

Key Data Points

• US markets rebounded: S&P +0.14%, Dow +0.22%. China macro data: August CPI +0.1% YoY, PPI -3% YoY.

Disclosures

• Standard disclaimers on risks and liability not guaranteed.