20250428-招银国际-比亚迪-002594.SZ-1Q25_earnings_on_track_5页_1mb

报告摘要

BYD (1211 HK/002594 CH) 1Q25 Earnings Summary and Analysis

Core Content

BYD (1211 HK/002594 CH) reported its 1Q25 earnings, which were in line with preliminary forecasts. The company's net profit reached RMB9.2bn, with a net profit per vehicle of RMB9,148, showing strong earnings quality. The gross margin for 1Q25 was $20.1%$, matching prior forecasts despite rising discounts for inventory clearance. The company is expected to maintain its market share in FY25 with new models like the Han L, Tang L, and Titanium 3, which are anticipated to boost sales from 2Q25 onwards.

Main Points

Earnings Performance:
- 1Q25 net profit of RMB9.2bn was in line with the preliminary forecast of RMB8.5bn–10bn.
- Gross margin of $20.1%$ is close to the full-year forecast of $19.7%$.
- R&D expenses were RMB14.2bn, RMB1.5bn higher than projected, but offset by lower selling expenses and higher forex gains.
Sales and Market Position:
- Sales volume in 1Q25 was on track to meet the full-year forecast of 5.25mn units.
- Overseas sales volume reached 0.2mn units, which is 20% of total sales, exceeding prior expectations.
- BYD could lead a price war in 2H25 to maintain market share, but its high earnings quality suggests it can keep net profit per vehicle above RMB10,000.
Earnings Forecast:
- The FY25E net profit was fine-tuned to RMB57.5bn, with unchanged target price (HK$470 for H share, RMB440 for A share) based on a 23x FY25E EPS.
- FY27E earnings forecasts were added, maintaining a BUY rating.

Key Financial Metrics (1Q25)

Metric	Value (RMB mn)	YoY Growth (%)
Revenue	170,360	36.3%
Gross profit	34,185	32.1%
R&D expenses	14,223	34.0%
SG&A expenses	11,087	21.8%
Operating profit	11,021	90.1%
Net profit	9,155	100.4%
Gross margin	20.1%	-0.6 ppts
Operating margin	6.5%	1.8 ppts
Net margin	5.4%	1.7 ppts

Earnings Revision (FY25E–FY27E)

Metric	CMBIGM Forecast (RMB mn)	Consensus Forecast (RMB mn)	Diff (%)
Revenue	970,122	988,632	-1.9%
Gross profit	191,500	200,119	-4.3%
Operating profit	71,663	66,630	+7.6%
Net profit	57,457	54,945	+4.6%
Gross margin	19.7%	20.2%	-0.5 ppts
Operating margin	7.4%	6.7%	+0.6 ppts
Net margin	5.9%	5.6%	+0.4 ppts

Valuation Metrics

Metric	FY23A	FY24A	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E
P/S (x)	1.9	1.5	1.2	1.1	1.0
P/E (x)	36.1	26.9	19.5	17.9	16.5
Yield (%)	0.8	0.7	1.0	1.1	1.2
ROE (%)	24.0	24.8	25.0	21.1	19.4
Net gearing (%)	(69.5)	(50.7)	(92.8)	(103.8)	(117.7)

Stock Performance (12-Month)

Period	1211 HK	002594 CH
1-mth	2.0%	0.3%
3-mth	44.7%	32.9%
6-mth	35.7%	20.3%

Key Risks

Lower sales or margins than expected.
Sector de-rating.

Analysts

Ji SHI, CFA: (852)37618728 | shiji@cmbi.com.hk
Wenjing DOU, CFA: (852)69394751 | douwenjing@cmbi.com.hk
Austin Liang: (852) 3900 0856 | austinliang@cmbi.com.hk

Analyst Certification

The analyst certifies that all views reflect personal opinions.
No part of the analyst's compensation is related to the views expressed.
The analyst confirms no trading in the stock covered in the report within 30 days before or after the report's issue date.

CMBIGM Ratings

BUY: Potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months.
MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.
CMBIGM is not liable for any loss, damage, or expense from reliance on the information.
The information is subject to change without notice.
CMBIGM may have conflicts of interest and may have investment banking relationships with the companies mentioned.

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