20241031-招银国际-比亚迪股份-01211.HK-3Q24_GPM_provides_confidence_for_FY25_sales_5页_1mb

BYD (1211 HK) Equity Research Summary

Maintain BUY Rating:

1. Q3 2024 Performance: Despite an SG&A/ R&D費用 miss, BYD's Gross Margin (GM) reached 21.9% (beating forecast by 0.9pp), providing confidence for full year 2025 forecasts.
2. Revised FY24/25 Sales & Financials: Revised-up FY24E sales volume (+4% to 4.02 million units) driven by successful DM-i 5.0 PHEVs. Uprated FY25E sales (13% YoY, 4.55 million units) and maintained BUY rating with target price increased to HK$350 (up 18.6% YoY), based on 20x FY25E EPS outlook.
3. Earnings Quality Focus: BYD prioritizes market share, global expansion, and earnings quality over rapid growth. SG&A/expenses forecast rises with overseas push; R&D expense budgeted at RMB51bn in FY25E (99% expensed).

Recommendation Basis: Recent improving investor sentiment and solid past performance underpins the BUY rating and valuation upgrade.

Key Risks (Downgrade/Priced factors):

• Lower sales/volume than expected, or missing GM targets (current GM 21.9% vs FY24E 20.6% on estimates).
• Sector de-rating risk.

Target Price: HK$350.00 (Previous: HK$262.00). Current price: HK$295.00.