20251204-大越期货-燃料油早报_11页_1mb

报告摘要

Fuel Oil Market Analysis Summary

Date: 2025-12-04
Report by: Jin Zebin, Department of Investment Consulting, 大越期货股份有限公司
**Credentials:**从业资格证号: F3048432; 投资咨询证号: Z0015557; 交易咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】1091号
Disclaimer: This report is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Market risks apply.

Key Analysis Points

Fundamentals: High sulfur fuel oil supply is abundant, potentially leading to further下行. Singapore intermediate sulfur fuel oil reached fair water on Dec 2, indicating support. However, overall fundamentals may persist until early 2026. Demand optimism is unverified, adding downward pressure.
Inventory: Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased to 2059.9 million barrels. A reduction suggests potential supply-side tightness, but market dynamics are neutral due to other factors.
Market Sentiment:
- Current prices below the 20-day moving average.
- High sulfur contracts hold bearish positions, while low sulfur shows declining long positions.
- Market expected震荡运行 (range-bound movement). Short-term positivity includes factors like Russia's export restrictions and sanctions on Russian entities, but crude oil weakness adds bearish elements.
Outlook: Asian high sulfur fuel oil market structure小幅上升. 380CST high sulfur is in wide backwardation. Expected volatility; FU2601 prices in 2410-2450 range, LU2602 in 2980-3030 range.
Risk Factors: Geopolitical tensions could disrupt supply; OPEC+ fragmentation or war escalation pose significant risks.

Key Economic Factors

利好 (Positive): Russia fuel export restrictions; sanctions on Russian oil-related enterprises after talks cancellation.
利空 (Negative): Unverified demand optimism; upstream crude oil under pressure.
Market Driver: Supply affected by geopolitical risks balancing with neutral demand.