2017年-PIIE彼得森国际经济研究所_US_156页_1mb

Summary of PIIE Briefing: 17-1 US-China Cooperation in a Changing Global Economy

Core Content

This briefing explores the evolving economic relationship between the United States and China under the Trump administration, focusing on trade, investment, exchange rates, and the broader implications for the global economy. It highlights the potential for cooperation and the risks of conflict, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a rules-based international economic system.

Main Views

1. Shift in US-China Economic Roles

• The US has historically been the leader in creating the global economic and financial architecture, while China has been a major beneficiary.
• The Trump administration's "America First" approach has shifted the focus of US-China economic relations, with trade deficits and other economic issues becoming central.
• Despite these shifts, both countries have significant economic interdependence, and structural factors (not just trade balances) are the real drivers of their economic relationship.

2. Trade Imbalance and Its Causes

• China's comparative advantage is in labor-intensive industries, while the US excels in capital-intensive and high-tech sectors.
• The trade deficit is influenced by structural imbalances, not just by exchange rates or trade policies.
• The US trade deficit with China is not directly linked to industrial competitiveness or household welfare, but it remains a political concern.

3. Exchange Rate and Financial Policies

• The US dollar is expected to strengthen due to fiscal stimulus and monetary tightening, which could put downward pressure on the Chinese yuan.
• China's recent exchange rate reforms (e.g., the "8.11" reform) were not aimed at manipulating the currency for trade advantages but rather at meeting international standards.
• A stable exchange rate is in the mutual interest of both countries, and cooperation is preferable to conflict.

4. Bilateral Investment Flows

• US-China investment is driven by economic complementarities, with China investing in high-tech and services sectors in the US and the US investing in manufacturing and infrastructure in China.
• US investment in China is more open and has higher returns, while Chinese investment in the US faces more restrictions, especially in services and technology.
• A bilateral investment treaty (BIT) is recommended to improve transparency, reduce discrimination, and enhance mutual benefits.

5. Impact of Trump's Policies on China

• Tax cuts, infrastructure investment, and financial deregulation in the US may lead to increased capital inflows, but could also increase the US trade deficit.
• These policies could indirectly pressure China to reform its own economic systems, such as tax policy and state-owned enterprises (SOEs).
• The US may also face a growing current account deficit, which could lead to increased trade imbalances with China.

6. Risk of Trade War

• A trade war would harm both economies and have severe global repercussions, including financial instability and reduced demand.
• The US has historically supported multilateral trade systems, recognizing their role in promoting economic efficiency and stability.
• China has also increasingly accepted international norms, though it has been slow to align its voice and influence with its economic size.

7. China's Strategy to Avoid Conflict

• China should focus on structural reforms, such as opening up its service sectors and reducing overcapacity in steel and aluminum, to align with international norms and reduce tensions.
• It should also seek to engage in multilateral cooperation, including working with the G20 and other international institutions, to counter US unilateralism.
• A medium-term strategy that includes WTO-based legal challenges and participation in regional trade agreements (e.g., RCEP) is essential to preserve the rules-based system.

Key Information

• US-China Trade Deficit: In 2016, China accounted for 46% of the US goods trade deficit, up 33% in terms of value added.
• Exchange Rate Trends: The US dollar is expected to strengthen, increasing depreciation pressure on the yuan.
• China's "8.11" Reform: Aimed at meeting IMF requirements, not at gaining trade advantages.
• US Fiscal Policy: Likely to include tax cuts and infrastructure spending, which could increase capital flows to the US.
• FDI and ODI: US FDI in China is growing, while Chinese ODI in the US is increasing rapidly.
• CFIUS Concerns: US restrictions on Chinese investments are driven by national security concerns, but also by protectionist sentiments.
• Potential for Trade War: Could lead to global financial instability and reduced economic efficiency.
• Multilateral Cooperation: Recommended as a way to counter US unilateralism and protect the international economic order.

Conclusion

The US-China economic relationship is complex and multifaceted, shaped by structural factors and policy changes. While the Trump administration's focus on trade balances and "America First" policies may lead to tensions, both countries have strong incentives to cooperate on trade, investment, and exchange rate stability. China should pursue structural reforms and multilateral engagement to avoid conflict and support a rules-based international system. A bilateral investment treaty could help reduce friction and enhance mutual economic benefits.