20140904-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_20页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides a comprehensive market update for the week of September 4, 2014, covering key regions including China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. It includes company results, sector updates, key indices, corporate events, stock recommendations, and financial data for major developers and telecom companies.
Main Points and Key Information
China Property Sector
- 1H14 Results Review: Chinese developers in Hong Kong reported mixed results with lower gross margins (down 1.9 ppt yoy), higher net gearing ratios (up 11.3 ppt hoh), and earnings growth of 14.3% yoy.
- Policy Relaxation: Recent policy relaxation and mortgage easing are expected to lead to a gradual sales recovery in 4Q14.
- Regional Focus: Developers are focusing on key cities and prime sites to manage risks and capitalise on urbanisation and income growth.
- Stock Picks: Large-cap picks for long only include COLI, SUNAC, and CRL. Beta chasing picks include SUNAC China. Bearish investors may consider trading pairs like Shimao and Poly Property.
- Recommendations: Maintain a market-weighted approach. Recommend taking profits in late-October or early-November due to potential sales concerns.
Hong Kong Market
- SmarTone (315 HK): 2HFY14 net profit dropped 36.3% yoy to HK$521m, in line with previous profit warnings.
- Performance: The company's share price is at HK$11.78, with a target price of HK$12.58.
- ARPU and Capex: ARPU is expected to rebound due to tariff hikes and the iPhone 6 launch. Capex has passed its peak and is expected to decline further.
- Recommendation: Maintain HOLD. The upside is limited until further tariff hikes or strong results are seen.
Key Indices
- The DJIA, S&P 500, FTSE 100, AS30, CSI 300, and others showed mixed performance, with some indices indicating positive growth and others showing declines.
- The KLCI and KOSPI experienced negative changes in certain periods.
Corporate Events
- A series of events are scheduled for September and October, including analyst presentations, corporate roadshows, and conferences in Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, and Hong Kong.
Key Assumptions
- GDP Growth: Expected growth for various countries and regions, with China at 7.3% for 2014F and 2015F.
- Commodity Prices: Prices for commodities like crude oil, CPO, and BDI are expected to have mixed trends, with some showing potential increases.
Top Picks
| Company | Ticker | Recommendation | Share Price (HK$) | Target Price (HK$) | Upside/Downside (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China Overseas Land | 688 HK | BUY | 22.95 | 26.80 | 16.8 |
| China Resources Land | 1109 HK | BUY | 18.42 | 21.42 | 16.3 |
| Bank Mandiri | BMRI IJ | BUY | 10,550.00 | 10,800.00 | 2.4 |
| Deleum | DLUM MK | BUY | RM2.16 | RM2.80 | 16.2 |
| Ezion Holdings | EZI SP | BUY | $2.22 | $2.62 | 18.1 |
| Logindo Samudramakmur | LEAD IJ | BUY | Rp5,050 | Rp6,400 | 26.7 |
| Samart Corp | SAMART TB | BUY | Bt27.50 | Bt35.00 | 27.0 |
| Pacific Radiance | PACRA SP | BUY | $1.49 | $1.76 | 18.1 |
| DBS | DBS SP | BUY | $18.06 | $22.68 | 25.6 |
| Gamuda | GAM MK | BUY | 4.82 | 5.60 | 16.2 |
| PTT | PTT TB | BUY | Bt327.00 | Bt360.00 | 10.1 |
| Bangkok Bank | BBL TB | BUY | Bt215.00 | Bt237.00 | 10.2 |
Sell Recommendations
| Company | Ticker | Recommendation | Share Price (HK$) | Target Price (HK$) | Upside/Downside (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glorious Property | 845 HK | SELL | 1.12 | 0.96 | -14.3 |
| Poly Property | 119 HK | SELL | 3.47 | 2.90 | -16.4 |
Key Financials (SmarTone)
| Metric | 2014 | 2015F | 2016F | 2017F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Profit | HK$521m | HK$704m | HK$906m | HK$1,003m |
| EBITDA | HK$2,563m | HK$2,625m | HK$2,788m | HK$2,973m |
| EPS (HK$) | 50.2 | 67.7 | 87.2 | 96.5 |
| PE (x) | 23.5 | 17.4 | 13.5 | 12.2 |
| Net Debt/Share (HK$) | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Dividend Yield (%) | 2.6 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 6.6 |
| Net Margin (%) | 3.9 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 6.9 |
Financial Highlights (China Developers)
| Company | 1H14 Revenue (Rmbm) | yoy chg (%) | 1H14 Core Net Profit (Rmbm) | yoy chg (%) | EPS (Rmb) | yoy chg (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLI* | 49,575 | 54.0 | 10,790 | 33.7 | 1.59 | 17.8 |
| CRL* | 27,688 | 75.5 | 3,690 | 83.7 | 0.85 | 13.3 |
| Longfor | 15,945 | 4.7 | 2,130 | -22.3 | 0.74 | 4.0 |
| Shimao | 23,675 | 42.0 | 3,630 | 21.2 | 1.21 | 20.7 |
| SUNAC | 9,067 | 5.9 | 1,023 | 21.1 | 0.24 | 6.1 |
| China Resources Land | 9,822 | -3.6 | 705 | -38.0 | 0.33 | -26.5 |
| China Overseas Land | 7,894 | -1.4 | 1,052 | -21.6 | 0.47 | -31.2 |
- In HK$
Conclusion
The report highlights a mixed performance across the property and telecom sectors in the region, with policy relaxation and market dynamics playing a crucial role in shaping future outlooks. While some companies like SmarTone are showing signs of recovery, others such as Poly Property are underperforming. The focus remains on regional strategies and key economic indicators, with a cautious outlook on the property market and a positive outlook on telecom growth.
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