20170112-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_20页_991kb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of market insights and stock analysis for various regions, focusing on the performance and outlook of specific companies and sectors in the context of economic and industry trends. It includes earnings revisions, target prices, corporate events, and key assumptions.

Key Regions and Sectors

China

Cinema Sector:
- Box office growth slowed in 2016 due to weaker domestic film quality and reduced online ticket subsidies.
- Expected to recover in 2017 with mid-teens growth driven by a stronger Hollywood blockbuster pipeline and easing of imported film quota limits.
- IMAX China is highlighted as a key beneficiary of the stronger imported film slate and is recommended as a better investment than Wanda Cinema.
- Wanda Cinema Line experienced lower-than-expected box office revenue and margin contraction, leading to a downgrade from BUY to HOLD.
- SMI Holdings saw reduced cinema expansion and earnings growth, leading to a cut in target price and forecast for slower expansion in 2017-18.

Indonesia

PGAS (Perusahaan Gas Negara):
- Re-initiated coverage with a BUY recommendation.
- Expected to see a 9.2% yoy earnings growth due to higher deliveries and lower impairment.
- Target price set at Rp3,300, implying an 18% upside from the current share price of Rp2,800.
- The gas selling price ceiling is set at US$6/mmbtu for 2017, affecting margins, but the company is expected to benefit from higher oil prices and LNG volume growth.

Malaysia

Building Materials Sector:
- Strong year expected due to rising steel ASP and cement demand outstripping supply, ending the price war.
Sunsuria (SSR MK):
- Poised for a multi-year growth phase with the launch of flagship developments.

Singapore

ISOTeam (ISO SP):
- Earnings-accretive deal at a good price, with a target price of S$0.60.

Thailand

LPN Development (LPN TB):
- Downgraded to SELL due to high downside risk and early stage of potential recovery.

Key Indices

Index	Previous Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	19954.3	0.5	0.1	1.0	1.0
S&P 500	2275.3	0.3	0.2	0.7	1.6
FTSE 100	7290.5	0.2	1.4	4.8	2.1
AS30	5823.7	0.2	0.6	3.6	1.8
CSI 300	3334.5	-0.7	-1.0	-2.2	0.7
FSSTI	3000.9	-0.2	2.7	1.7	4.2
HSCEI	9733.9	0.7	3.1	0.4	3.6
HSI	22935.4	0.8	3.6	2.2	4.2
JCI	5301.2	-0.2	0.0	-0.1	0.1
KLCI	1675.2	0.2	1.7	2.1	2.0
KOSPI	2075.2	1.5	1.4	2.4	2.4
Nikkei 225	19364.7	0.3	1.3	1.1	1.3
SET	1572.9	0.1	0.6	3.1	1.9
TWSE	9345.7	-0.0	0.6	-0.0	1.0
BDI	926	-2.4	-4.4	-15.0	-3.6
CPO (RM/ml)	3256	0.4	-0.1	2.3	1.8
Brent Crude (US$/bbl)	55	3.1	-2.1	1.8	-2.7

Key Assumptions

Metric	2015	2016F	2017F
GDP (% yoy)	2.6	1.7	2.7
Euro Zone	2.0	1.6	1.1
Japan	1.2	0.8	0.9
Singapore	2.0	1.4	1.8
Malaysia	5.0	4.2	4.5
Thailand	2.8	3.2	3.3
Indonesia	4.8	5.0	5.2
Hong Kong	2.4	2.1	1.8
China	6.9	6.5	6.2

Top Picks

BUY

Air China (753 HK): Target price HK$6.50, potential upside 25.7%
Ping An Insurance (2318 HK): Target price HK$47.00, potential upside 16.9%
Ciputra Property (CTRP IJ): Target price Rp960.00, potential upside 40.1%
Indosat (ISAT IJ): Target price Rp8,015.00, potential upside 29.3%
Genting Bhd (GENT MK): Target price MK10.15, potential upside 22.3%
Citiv Dev (CIT SP): Target price SP10.36, potential upside 19.2%
OCBC (OCBC SP): Target price SP10.65, potential upside 14.5%
Bangkok Dusit (BDMS TB): Target price TB31.20, potential upside 37.4%
Siam Cement (SCC TB): Target price TB645.00, potential upside 28.5%

SELL

LPN Development (LPN TB): Target price Bt11.00, potential downside not specified

Corporate Events

Luncheon with CREC Malaysia and Tittijaya Land: Malaysia, 16 Jan
China Healthcare Sector Analyst Marketing: Singapore, 16 Jan; Malaysia, 17-18 Jan
Annual Heineken-UOB Kay Hian Corporate Networking: Malaysia, 19 Jan
Spore REITS Sector Analyst Marketing: Malaysia, 19 Jan
PTT Exploration and Production Roadshow: Singapore, 6-7 Feb
Luncheon with Kim Loong Resources: Malaysia, 13 Feb
SGX-UOB Kay Hian Corporate Day: Taipei, 21 Feb
UOB Kay Hian ASEAN Conference: Taipei, 22 Feb

Valuation & Recommendations

IMAX China (1970 HK)

Rating: BUY
Target Price: HK$41.00
Potential Upside: 17.9%
Reasoning: Stronger imported film slate and better performance compared to Wanda Cinema.

Wanda Cinema Line (002739 CH)

Rating: HOLD
Target Price: Rmb60.00
Reasoning: Slower earnings growth and trading close to 40x 2017F PE.

SMI Holdings (198 HK)

Rating: BUY
Target Price: HK$0.88
Reasoning: Lower-than-expected cinema expansion and revenue growth, but still poised for growth.

PGAS IJ (Indonesia)

Rating: BUY
Target Price: Rp3,300
Potential Upside: 17.9%
Reasoning: DCF-based valuation, with improved earnings and reduced impairment.

Stock Impact

China Cinema Sector: Expected to recover with 15% box office growth in 2017.
PGAS: LNG sales volume is projected to double in 2017, and upstream business margin is expected to improve with higher oil prices.

Earnings Revisions

PGAS:
- 2016F net profit revised to US$459m
- 2017F net profit revised to US$479m
IMAX China:
- 2016F net profit revised to Rmb1,319m
- 2017F net profit revised to Rmb1,664m
SMI Holdings:
- 2016F net profit revised to HK$407m
- 2017F net profit revised to HK$517m