2025-05-26-Jefferies-拼多多（PDD）_宏观不确定性下的生态系统投资_11页_291kb

PDD Equity Research Summary

Ratings and Price Target

• Rating： BUY
• Current Price： $97.32
• Revised Price Target： $121.00 (down from $156.00)
• YoY Change： +24% from PT
• 52-Week Range： $164.69 - $87.11

1Q25 Financial Highlights

• Revenue： RMB95.7 billion (YoY +10%, below consensus and estimates)
• Online Marketing Services： RMB48.7 billion (YoY +15%, above initial estimates)
• Transaction Services： RMB47 billion (YoY +6%, below initial estimates)
• Gross Profit： RMB54.7 billion (GPM 57%, below consensus and estimates)
• Non-GAAP OP： RMB18.3 billion (vs. estimate RMB27.3 billion)
• Non-GAAP Net Profit： RMB16.9 billion (vs. estimate RMB26.7 billion)

Key Takeaways

1. Strategies Amid Macro Uncertainties:

   • Compliance with regulations in different countries.
   • Investments in supply chain and new business models.
   • RMB100 billion SME support program to stabilize demand and reduce operational costs.

2. Margins and Profitability:

   • Revenue growth slowed due to competition and macro uncertainties.
   • Profitability declined due to a mismatch between investment timing and revenue.

3. Competitive Landscape:

   • PDD focuses on merchant support through product, technology, and operations.
   • 618 marketing campaign emphasizes consumer-friendly discounts and stable pricing.

Valuation and Risks

• Maintain Buy Rating but lower PT to $121 due to latest developments.
• Risks:
  • Intensified domestic competition.
  • Aggressive S&M spending in price wars.
  • Stringent cross-border e-commerce regulations.
  • Geopolitical risks.

Long-Term Thesis

• Success driven by C2M model and distributed AI technologies.
• PDD monetizes through advertising and transaction services.
• Focus on high-quality growth over near-term profitability.

Financial Projections (2024A–2026E):

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