2025-06-03-Jefferies-政策不确定性脉搏检查_2025年5月_13页_1mb

Equity Research: US and Global Policy Uncertainty in May 2025

US Policy Uncertainty Trends (May 2025)

• Trade Policy Uncertainty: Decreased by 27% month-over-month but began rising again in late May.
• Spending Policy Uncertainty: Increased by 67%.
• Other Policy Uncertainties: Mixed results. Entitlement Programs (+42%), Healthcare (+28%) saw increases; Fiscal (-11%), Tax (-15%) decreased. National Security Uncertainty fell the most (-28%).
• Policy Importance: Trade policy is ranked highest in linkage to equity markets among policy categories.

Global Policy Uncertainty

• Highest in Germany: Global trade policy uncertainty remains elevated.
• Significant Declines: India (-42%) and Mexico (-41%) showed the largest reductions in economic policy uncertainty. Russia (-35%) experienced a sharp drop.
• Developed Economies: France (-31%), UK (-29%), Canada (-15%) all saw decreases.

Market Implications

• June Outlook: Expect heightened volatility.
• Drivers: Primarily driven by continued trade policy uncertainty due to US-China tensions.
• Spending Policy: Debates over Medicaid reform contributing to spending policy uncertainty.
• Potential Havens: India and Mexico, experiencing significant reductions in policy uncertainty, are positioned as potential equity market havens during US volatility.

Summary Key Points

• Trade policy shows persistent uncertainty despite recent dips.
• Spending policy uncertainty saw a significant spike.
• Globally, countries like India and Mexico showed reduced policy uncertainty, offering potential stability contrasting with US fluctuations.
• Increased uncertainty points towards potential market volatility, particularly influenced by international trade dynamics.