英文_高盛_拼多多控股（PDD）2025年第一季度回顾_利润未达预期_因用户-商家投资增加；国内利润预期降低但份额增长健康；维持买入评级_15页_2mb

Earnings Update: PDD Holdings reported a profit miss due to a 36% year-over-year decrease in adjusted EBIT, primarily driven by a quarter-on-quarter step-up in Selling & Marketing expenses (+9%) related to merchant promotions, despite healthy online marketing revenue growth of +15% (exceeding industry average +6%). Analysts attributed this to investments in the platform ecosystem to support SME merchants.

Financial Projections: Goldman Sachs lowers its 2025E-27E profit forecasts by -24%/-13%/-8% respectively, expecting domestic EBIT margins to decline to 1.9-2.2% for FY25E-FY27E. Net profit forecasts and SOTP target price are reduced from US$152 to US$131, factoring in Temu's lower revenue growth (-9%) and domestic market challenges.

Recommendation: Maintain "Buy" rating based on adtech strengths, cost-competitive ecosystem, and favorable valuation risks-reward. Current market cap implies no value ascribed to Temu.

Key Drivers: Continued dominance in online marketing revenue growth (+14% yoy projected) offsetting slower GMV growth. Potential for valuation re-rating if earnings improve or geopolitical risks ease.

Risks: Downside includes lower online marketing revenues, wider geopolitical headwinds in Temu's expansion, increased competition from Alibaba and Douyin, and potential margin pressure from reinvestments.