2025-05-08-Jefferies-西尔瓦科（SVCO）_宏观不确定性导致再次重置_16页_632kb

Silvaco Equity Research Summary

Key Findings

1. Revenue and Guidance:

   • Recent revenue shortfall (~10% due to order deferrals) led to downward June guidance. Quarterly revenue missed expectations due to macro uncertainty and tariff impacts in Asia, with TCAD segment hit hardest.

2. Acquisitions:

   • Acquisitions of Tech-X and CDNS' OPC business (~$600M incremental SAM) to accelerate growth in TCAD and EDA markets. Tech-X integration targets multi-physics simulation for photonics and semiconductors.

3. Financial Performance:

   • EPS continues to miss expectations despite improving organic growth. Full-year 2025 revenue midpoint currently at $67M, with pressure on margins due to higher opex from acquisitions and R&D.

4. Growth Outlook:

   • Revenue must grow significantly in H2 2025 to meet targets. Price target is $8/share (~+51% from current price), driven by potential 20-60x revenue runway in TCAD, EDA, and footprints analysis markets.

5. Risks:

   • Intense competition in EDA from incumbents; geopolitical challenges in China; macro uncertainty affecting semiconductor demand; FTCo adoption uncertainties; execution risks of M&A.

6. Valuation:

   • 12-mo PTs range from $3 to $11, reflecting different growth scenarios. Current PT $8 implies 23x CY27E EPS of $0.34.