2017年-ECB欧洲央行_The_ECB_Survey_of_Professional_Forecasters_SPF_–_Second_Quarter_of_2017_11页_238kb

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters - Q2 2017 Summary

Core Content Overview

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2017 provides insights into inflation, real GDP growth, and unemployment rate expectations for the euro area. The survey highlights shifts in economic outlook, particularly for near-term inflation and real GDP growth, while long-term inflation and unemployment expectations remain relatively stable.

Key Findings

1. Inflation Expectations

• Headline Inflation:

  • Expected to rise to 1.6% in 2017, 1.5% in 2018, and 1.7% in 2019.
  • The 2017 forecast was revised up by 0.2 p.p., and 2019 was revised up by 0.1 p.p..
  • Longer-term inflation (2021) expectations remained unchanged at 1.8%.

• HICP Excluding Food and Energy:

  • Expected to be 1.1%, 1.3%, and 1.5% for 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively.
  • These expectations are broadly unchanged from the previous survey.
  • The 2021 forecast for this category is also 1.7%.

• Uncertainty:

  • The aggregate probability distribution for inflation has shifted towards higher outcomes, particularly for 2017.
  • The distributional mean for longer-term inflation is 1.7%, slightly below the average point forecast of 1.8%, indicating downside risks.

2. Real GDP Growth Expectations

• GDP Growth:

  • Expected to be 1.7% in 2017, 1.6% in 2018, and 1.5% in 2019.
  • The 2017 and 2018 forecasts were revised up by 0.2 p.p. and 0.1 p.p., respectively.
  • The longer-term (2021) growth expectation is 1.6%, unchanged from the previous survey.

• Probability Distributions:

  • The probability of GDP growth exceeding 1.5% increased from 55% to 66% for 2017.
  • For 2019, it increased from 50% to 52%.
  • The distributional mean is 0.1 p.p. below the average point forecast, indicating downside risks.

3. Unemployment Rate Expectations

• Unemployment Rate:

  • Expected to fall to 9.4%, 9.1%, and 8.7% for 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively.
  • The 2019 and longer-term (2021) forecasts were revised down by 0.2 p.p. and 0.1 p.p., respectively.
  • This represents a slightly steeper downward path for unemployment.

• Probability Distributions:

  • The distribution modes shifted left by one bin for 2017, 2019, and the longer term.
  • The mean of the distribution for the longer term is 8.6%, above the average point forecast of 8.4%, indicating upside risks.

4. Other Variables and Assumptions

• Oil Prices:

  • Expected to rise to USD 55 in 2017, USD 58 in 2018, and USD 60 in 2019.
  • This is USD 1-2 higher than the previous survey.
  • In euro terms, the expected increase is minimal due to a slightly stronger EUR/USD exchange rate.

• USD/EUR Exchange Rate:

  • Expected to remain stable at 1.06 until the first quarter of 2018, then increase to 1.10 by 2019.

• Monetary Policy:

  • The Eurosystem's main refinancing rate is expected to remain around 0% until the end of 2018, then rise to 0.3% in 2019.

• Compensation Growth:

  • Expected to increase to 1.6% in 2017, 1.8% in 2018, 1.9% in 2019, and 2.0% in 2021.
  • This is unchanged from the previous survey.

Summary of Changes

Main Views and Assumptions

• Inflation:

  • Near-term headline inflation expectations increased, driven by stronger-than-expected first-quarter data.
  • Longer-term inflation expectations remain stable at 1.8%, with downside risks still present.
  • Wages are expected to grow weakly, with real wage growth likely to remain below 0.3% until 2021.

• GDP Growth:

  • Expectations for 2017 and 2018 were revised upwards, reflecting improved economic sentiment.
  • The downside risk balance remains, with the distributional mean slightly below the point forecast.

• Unemployment:

  • Expectations for the unemployment rate continue to decline, with a steeper downward trend in the longer term.
  • Upside risks are still perceived, especially for the longer-term forecast.

• External and Political Risks:

  • Political uncertainty (e.g., EU elections) and external factors (e.g., slowing emerging markets, US trade policies, higher commodity prices) are seen as key risks to economic growth.

• Exchange Rate and Oil Prices:

  • The USD/EUR exchange rate is expected to remain stable in the short term and then increase slightly.
  • Oil prices are expected to rise by about 10% by 2019, but the impact on euro terms is minimal due to exchange rate movements.

Conclusion

The SPF Q2 2017 survey reflects a modest upward revision in near-term inflation and real GDP growth expectations, while longer-term inflation and unemployment remain unchanged or slightly revised down. The economic outlook is cautiously optimistic, with moderate downside risks to inflation and GDP growth, and upside risks to unemployment. Professional forecasters highlight political and external uncertainties as significant factors influencing their outlook.