2017年下半年酒店洞察报告（英文版）

报告摘要

Colliers Hotel Insight Summary

Core Content

Colliers Hotel Insight is a quarterly report that provides an overview of key trends in the hospitality sector, particularly in the Asia Pacific region. It highlights the performance of the hotel industry, investment opportunities, valuation insights, and future outlook for 2018. The report is published by Colliers International, a global real estate services firm with a dedicated hotel division established in 1985. The firm offers a wide range of services, including capital valuations, asset management, transaction advisory, and brokerage across multiple countries in the Asia Pacific.

Main Services Offered

Market Demand and Feasibility Studies
Valuations (Property and Business)
Plant and Machinery Valuation
Impairment Testing
Capital Markets
Due Diligence
Internal Business Reviews
Operator Search and Select
Benchmarking and Forecasting
Business Expansion (extensions, refurbishments, brand roll out)
Asset Management
Business Restructuring (opco / propco)
Needs Analysis / Economic Impact Studies
Highest and Best Use / Concept Designs
Transaction Advisory, IPO and REITS listing
Management Agreements and Lease Reviews
Litigation Support and Dispute Resolution
Project Management and Leasing
Tourism Strategy and Master Planning

Key Hospitality Sectors

Colliers has expertise in the following sectors:

Hotels and Resorts
Golf
Casinos and Racecourses
Health and Fitness
Spas and Wellness Facilities
Meetings and Events (MICE)
Mixed-use Developments
Travel Trade

Outlook for 2018

Tourism Growth

Tourism arrivals in the Asia Pacific region are expected to grow by 4.5% in 2018, following a similar growth in 2017.
Growth is primarily driven by China and India, with India showing particular promise due to rising GDP per capita and economic growth.
The cruise industry is expected to see strong growth, with demand increasing from 0.8 million in 2012 to 4.2 million in 2017, representing a 430% increase.
Health and wellness tourism is also a major growth driver, fueled by an aging and wealthier population, and expected to grow at 7.5% annually over the next five years.

Key Themes

Rising Consumer and Business Confidence: This is expected to boost MICE and leisure travel.
Cruise Industry Expansion: With home ports in Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, China, and Thailand, the sector is gaining popularity.
Health and Wellness Demand: Increasing interest in organic food, yoga, and fitness, with Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia as top wellness destinations.
Foreign Currency Movements: US interest rate policy will influence currency fluctuations, impacting cap rates and investment decisions.
Low Cost Carriers (LCCs): Continued growth in LCCs is expected to drive tourism arrivals, especially in emerging markets.
Operator Consolidation: Hotel companies are consolidating to reduce the impact of OTAs and improve value realization.
Emerging Markets: These are seen as opportunities for brand penetration and yield, with reduced political risk and eased visa policies.
Technology and Guest Experience: Smart technology and mobile platforms are becoming more prevalent, with a focus on direct bookings and loyalty programs.

Cap Rate Outlook for 2018

Short-term cap rates are expected to widen due to factors like US interest rates, currency movements, and economic performance in key source markets.
The global hotel sector has seen a drop in transaction activity, but "safe haven" markets like Singapore, Tokyo, and Hong Kong remain active.
China continues to be a major source of hotel investment, although its outbound investment has decreased due to capital controls.
Yield is expected to remain low until interest rates rise significantly.

Destinations to Watch in 2018

Xian, Chengdu, Tokyo, Colombo, Xiamen, and Jakarta are highlighted as key growth destinations.
Established cities like Bangkok, Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Kuala Lumpur, and Taipei are expected to maintain their positions as top destinations.
Emerging destinations such as Bagan, Osaka, Chengdu, and Colombo are anticipated to see double-digit growth in visitation.

Investment and Valuation Highlights

Colliers undertakes over 250 hospitality valuations annually, covering both single assets and portfolios.
Valuations are performed for reporting, financing, and transaction advisory purposes, ranging from budget properties to trophy assets.
The firm has a multi-lingual and multi-cultural team of highly qualified professionals, offering tailored advice and a single point of contact.
Valuation accuracy is supported by close client relationships and in-depth market knowledge, with the help of the Research and Advisory team.

Key Sector Trends

Consumer Confidence: Gradual improvement in Asian economies is expected to boost both business and leisure travel.
Hotel Supply: Some destinations (e.g., Tokyo) have limited supply, while others (e.g., Singapore, Bali) face oversupply.
Loyalty Programs: The value of loyalty is expected to return, with incentives like free Wi-Fi, room upgrades, and F&B discounts.
Co-living and Smaller Rooms: Capsule hotels and co-living spaces are gaining traction among socially adept travelers.
Development Risk: With high asset prices, investors may consider development projects, though developers must share risks and provide exit guarantees.

Notable Transactions in 2017

Dalian Wanda China 74 Hotels Portfolio: Various locations, $118,943 per room
Hotel Jen Upper East, Beijing: $668,793 per room
Hotel Sunroute Plaza, Tokyo: $386,538 per room
Holiday Inn Central Plaza, Beijing: $659,711 per room
Ascott Residence Trust China Hotel Portfolio: Various locations, $335,419 per room
Swissotel Nai Lert Park, Bangkok: $394,483 per room
Somerset Youyi Tianjin: $407,893 per room
Sofitel Bali Nusa Dua Beach Resort: $298,800 per room
Songjiang New Century Grand Hotel, Shanghai: $264,602 per room
Belgravia Place, Shanghai: $1,132,105 per room
Banyan Tree China Portfolio: Various locations, $676,302 per room
Four Seasons Resort Langkawi: $1,055,964 per room
Pullman Jakarta Central Park: $306,270 per room
Qingdao Cophthorne Hotel: $172,982 per room

Conclusion

The hospitality sector in Asia Pacific is expected to grow steadily in 2018, driven by increased consumer confidence, the expansion of the cruise industry, and rising demand for health and wellness tourism. While cap rates may widen due to global economic factors, the sector remains attractive for investors. Colliers International is well-positioned to support these trends through its comprehensive range of services and expertise in key hospitality sectors.

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