2017年下半年酒店洞察报告（英文版）-2mb

Colliers Hotel Insight Summary

Core Content

This document is a quarterly digest of key trends in the hospitality sector across Asia, published by Colliers Hotels. It outlines the outlook for 2018, provides insights into hotel investment and valuation, and highlights key trends and sectors expected to perform well. The report also includes information about Colliers International Group, their services, and regional contacts.

Main Points

Global and Regional Economic Outlook

• Global economic activity is firming up, with growth expected to rise to 3.9% in 2018 and 2019 due to the U.S. tax policy changes and increased growth momentum.
• Political risks remain a concern, especially in Northeast Asia, which has seen slower growth in 2017.
• Tourism arrivals in the Asia-Pacific region are expected to grow by 4.5% in 2017 and continue at a similar rate in 2018.

RevPAR Performance

• RevPAR growth in 2017 (YTD Nov) was 2.9%, with Central and South Asia leading at 5.0% and North Eastern Asia lagging at 1.5%.
• For 2018, RevPAR growth is forecasted to be around 3.0%, influenced by foreign currency movements, low cost carriers (LCC), and consumer confidence.

Key Trends for 2018

1. Rising Confidence and Optimism

• Business and consumer confidence are expected to drive visitation, especially in MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, Exhibitions) and business travel combined with leisure.
• Established destinations like Bangkok, Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, and Kuala Lumpur will remain popular, while emerging destinations such as Bagan, Osaka, Chengdu, and Colombo are expected to see double-digit growth.

2. Upturn in Cruise Industry

• The cruise market in Asia is experiencing significant growth, with passenger numbers increasing from 0.8 million in 2012 to 4.2 million in 2017.
• China accounts for over 65% of passengers, with India also showing rapid growth.
• Destinations offering home ports and fly-and-cruise options are expected to benefit.

3. Strong Demand for Health and Wellness

• With an ageing and wealthier population, the health and wellness sector is growing rapidly.
• Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia are top wellness destinations.
• China and India are leading source markets for wellness tourism, with China expected to see the highest growth.
• The market is worth approximately US$111.2 billion as of 2015, and is projected to grow by 7.5% annually over the next five years.

4. Impact of LCCs and Currency Movements

• Low cost carriers (LCCs) have significantly influenced tourism arrivals, especially in emerging markets.
• Currency movements, particularly influenced by U.S. interest rate policy, will affect cap rates and investment decisions.
• Weaker currency destinations are likely to benefit from increased inbound travel.

5. Operator Consolidation

• The hotel industry is moving towards consolidation after a period of divestment.
• This trend is driven by the need to counter the impact of Online Travel Agents (OTAs) and improve profitability.

6. Emerging Markets and Political Risk

• Emerging markets offer higher returns and are becoming more attractive for investors.
• Political risk is decreasing in ASEAN countries, and visa restrictions are being eased, supporting growth in these regions.

7. Technology and Direct Bookings

• Technology is increasingly used to reduce costs and enhance guest experience.
• Smart technology and mobile-friendly platforms are expected to evolve in 2018.
• Hotels are encouraged to leverage direct bookings and search engine optimization to remain competitive.

8. Loyalty Programs

• There is a return to value for loyalty, with hotels revamping programs to reward members with benefits such as free Wi-Fi, room upgrades, and F&B discounts.

9. Smaller Rooms and Co-living Concepts

• Capsule hotels and co-living spaces are gaining popularity, especially among socially adept travelers.
• These concepts offer good investment opportunities due to their lower build and conversion costs.

Hotel Investment and Valuation

Capital Markets Insights

• China remains a major source of hotel investment in Asia.
• Despite capital controls, Chinese investment in foreign property assets increased slightly in 2017.
• Hotel investment, though slower, is still a preferred alternative asset class for Asian investors.

Cap Rate Outlook

• Cap rates are expected to widen in the short term, influenced by U.S. interest rate policy and currency fluctuations.
• Investors are advised to consider expediting disposition processes to take advantage of favorable market conditions and high valuations.

Valuation Services

• Colliers provides over 250 hospitality valuations annually, covering a wide range of asset types.
• They offer services such as property valuations, business valuations, impairment testing, and transaction advisory.
• The team includes specialists in various segments and is supported by in-depth market research and advisory services.

Destinations to Watch in 2018

• Xian, Chengdu, Tokyo, Colombo, Xiamen, and Jakarta are highlighted as key growth destinations.
• Established cities like Bangkok, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Tokyo are expected to remain top choices for travelers.

Our Services

Colliers offers a comprehensive range of services tailored to the hospitality industry, including:

• Market Demand and Feasibility Studies
• Valuations (Property and Business)
• Plant and Machinery Valuation
• Impairment Testing
• Capital Markets
• Due Diligence
• Internal Business Reviews
• Operator Search and Select
• Benchmarking and Forecasting
• Asset Management
• Business Restructuring
• Needs Analysis and Economic Impact Studies
• Highest and Best Use and Concept Designs
• Transaction Advisory, IPO, and REITS Listing
• Management Agreements and Lease Reviews
• Litigation Support and Dispute Resolution
• Project Management and Leasing
• Tourism Strategy and Master Planning

Our Hospitality Sectors

Colliers has experience across all main hospitality sectors, including:

• Hotels and Resorts
• Golf
• Casinos and Racecourses
• Health and Fitness
• Spas and Wellness Facilities
• Meetings and Events
• Mixed-use Developments
• Travel Trade

Disclaimer

• All opinions are general and not specific.
• The report should not be used for making investment decisions.
• Colliers International Group does not accept liability for decisions based on this publication.

About Colliers International Group

• Colliers International Group Inc. is a global real estate services company with 15,000 professionals in 68 countries.
• Services include property sales, leasing, finance, corporate solutions, and valuation.
• The company is ranked among the top 100 global outsourcing firms for 12 consecutive years.
• For more information, visit Colliers.com/Asia or follow them on social media.