20160530-招商证券_香港_-Morning_Express_15页_404kb

报告摘要

Current Price: HK$4.79
Rating: NEUTRAL
Target Price (TP): HK$4.7
EPS Cut: 19-26% for FY17E-FY18E
Performance:
- FY4Q16 revenue declined by 19% YoY, below expectations.
- Mobile sales dropped by 39% YoY, significantly worse than expected.
- Enterprise business integration slowed, contributing to revenue decline.
Reasons for Downgrade:
- Mobile turnaround is still distant and requires more time.
- Sluggish PC market and weak enterprise growth continue to hinder earnings recovery.
- Increased selling and R&D costs due to restructuring.
Valuation:
- Net profit was in line with expectations, supported by government grants.
- GPM improved to 16.6%, while E/R ratio reached 14.9%.
Recommendation:
- Investors should remain cautious and wait for PC stabilization and mobile recovery before considering investment.

Valuation: 0.37x 2016E P/B, significantly lower than the industry average of 0.63x.
Acquisition: Terex acquisition was abandoned due to price concerns.
Positive Factors:
- Asset quality is expected to improve.
- Future development potential is greater than peers.
Conclusion: Valuation remains attractive regardless of the acquisition.

Key Data Points:
- May job reports, April PCE, and May ISM manufacturing index will be important before the FOMC meeting in June.
- April retail sales and industrial production were stronger than expected.
- Nonfarm payrolls data was disappointing, but a rebound is expected in May.
Rate Hike Expectations:
- Stronger data, especially jobs data, may push the Fed to raise rates in June.
- Core PCE growth is a key inflation measure for the Fed.
Baseline Case: No rate hike in June unless payroll data surprises significantly.
Odds for Future Hikes: Higher for July-September.

Abenomics Impact:
- Positive momentum from Abenomics has faded.
- Economic growth is stagnant, markets are slumping, JPY is strengthening, and deflation is returning.
Monetary Policy Limits:
- QE has led to heavy BoJ holdings of bonds and ETFs.
- Negative interest rates are poorly received by markets.
Fiscal Policy Dilemma:
- Struggles between stimulus and consolidation.
- 2017 consumption tax hike is a lose-lose decision.
Debt and Market Distortions:
- Debt is unsustainable.
- Financial markets are distorted due to QE and delayed fiscal consolidation.
Conclusion: Japan is increasingly vulnerable to a financial crisis.

Hang Seng Index: 20576 (+0.88%)
Hang Seng Finance Index: 26886 (+0.83%)
Hang Seng Utilities Index: 52364 (+0.45%)
Hang Seng Property Index: 27910 (+0.4%)
HSCEI: 8595 (+0.81%)
CSI 300: 3062 (-0.06%)
Shanghai Composite Index: 2821 (-0.05%)
TWSE: 8463 (+0.83%)

Brent Oil: 50.03 (-0.28%)
COMEX Gold: 1212.4 (-0.66%)
COMEX Copper: 211.1 (+0.4%)
LME Aluminum: 1557.5 (+0.13%)
LME Copper: 4687.0 (+0.56%)
BDI: 606.0 (0.0%)

USD/RMB: 6.56 (+0.07%)
USD/HKD: 7.77 (-0.01%)
EUR/USD: 1.11 (-0.71%)
1Y RMB NDF: 6.75 (+0.28%)
3M Libor: 0.67 (+1.13%)
3M Shibor: 2.94 (+0.03%)
10Y US T-Note Yield: 1.85 (+1.09%)

Japan: Retail Sales YY (2016/05/30)
Germany: Import Prices MM, Import Prices YY, Retail Sales MM Real, CPI Prelim MM
Euro zone: Inflation, Flash YY, Unemployment Rate
US: Personal Income MM, Consumption, Adjusted MM, Core PCE Price Index MM, CaseShiller 20 MM SA, Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence
China: NBS Non-Mfg PMI (2016/06/01), NBS Manufacturing PMI, Caixin Mfg PMI Final, Caixin Services PMI (2016/06/03)

2016/05/30:
- Dickson Concepts (International) Ltd. (FIN RES/FIN DIV)
- Pokfulam Development Co. Ltd. (INT RES/INT DIV)
- Real Gold Mining Ltd. (INT RES/INT DIV)
- One Media Group Ltd. (4ST QTR RES)
- Media Chinese International Ltd. (4ST QTR RES)