20230616-创元期货-生猪周报_节前需求提振有限_猪价上涨或不及预期_15页_1mb

报告摘要

Swine Market Weekly Summary

Market Performance

Pork prices experienced fluctuation and slight upward movement, averaging 1445 RMB/kg as of June 16, attributed to heightened pre-festival bullish sentiment and increased demand from stocking up. However, Muyuan's recent lower sales price suggests a potential reversal of rising price expectations.

Supply-Side Factors

Supply remains abundant due to slow inventory digestion from high stock levels and lower feed production, offset by weight loss. Capacity reduction is accelerating as piglet and breeding stock prices decline, with ongoing industry losses of approximately 200 RMB per head, potentially leading to faster inventory write-off.

Demand-Side Factors

Pre-festival demand surged but is limited by cost-quantity relationships. High frozen pork inventories constrain屠宰开工率, and financial pressures reduce freezer stock release, which may dampen fresh pork consumption. Overall demand stimulation remains modest.

Outlook and Strategy

The market faces persistent supply excess with limited demand support, confining short-term price gains. An elevated near-month basis is expected post-rebound, subject to policy influences. Strategy suggests short positions in near-month contracts due to capped upside potential.