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EMEA Metals & Mining Sector Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) Metals & Mining sector using Citi's crowding scores, which are derived from five factors: alignment to the most crowded factor (quality), historical relative valuation, historical relative short interest ratio, sell-side rating, and news sentiment and macro exposure. The report also includes a similar analysis for the South African Metals & Mining sector.

Key Points

Crowding Score Interpretation

• Crowding scores are not explicit buy/sell signals.
• High long/short crowding scores may indicate fewer marginal buyers/sellers, implying higher risk.
• Investors should use crowding scores as one of many factors in their decision-making process, not as the sole criterion.

EMEA Metals & Mining Sector Analysis

Sector Performance and Crowding Score (Last Month)

• Overall long crowding score increased, while short score declined.
• Bullish sentiment was observed across all miners.
• FRES (Fresnillo) showed a very high long positioning score.
• News on additional tariffs on steel and aluminium positively impacted companies with significant US exposure, such as SSAB and Acerinox.
• Large cap miners were more bullish, particularly GLEN (Glencore), while NYH (Norsk Hydro) was more bearish.

Long Crowding Trends (Over Time)

• Large cap miners showed a steady increase in long crowding score.
• Mid cap miners showed fluctuating trends, with a slight increase in the last month.
• European steel had a relatively high long crowding score, with Rio Tinto and SSAB leading the way.

Short Crowding Trends (Over Time)

• Large cap miners had a declining trend in short crowding score, except for Anglo American.
• Mid cap miners showed fluctuations, with Antofagasta and Boliden having higher short scores.
• European steel had high short crowding scores, with Thyssenkrupp and ArcelorMittal being notable.

1-Month Change in Long vs Short Crowding

• Large cap miners saw a mixed change, with Glencore and BHP Group showing increased long positions.
• Mid cap miners showed a mixed trend, with Fresnillo and Boliden having significant short position increases.
• European steel had increased short positions for most companies, except for Voestalpine.

3-Month Change in Long vs Short Crowding

• Large cap miners showed some decline in long positions and increase in short positions.
• Mid cap miners had fluctuations, with Antofagasta and Boliden showing increased short positions.
• European steel showed increased short positions across most companies.

14-Week Average Crowding Scores

• Large cap miners had an average long crowding score of 58%.
• Mid cap miners had an average long crowding score of 35%.
• European steel had an average long crowding score of 61%.
• Short crowding scores were higher for most companies in both large and mid cap miners, with European steel averaging 52%.

South African Metals & Mining Sector Analysis

Sector Performance and Crowding Score (Last Month)

• Bearish sentiment continued, with fewer long positions and increased short positions.
• Impala saw a bullish shift in the past week.

Long vs Short Crowding (6 June)

• Anglo American had a high long score.
• Valterra Platinum had a low long score.
• Kumba Iron Ore had a high short score.
• Impala showed a mixed short score.

1-Month Change in Long vs Short Crowding

• Large cap miners showed mixed changes, with Anglo American having a significant increase in long positions.
• Mid cap miners showed fluctuations, with Valterra Platinum and Kumba Iron Ore having increased short positions.
• Impala showed increased long positions.

3-Month Change in Long vs Short Crowding

• Large cap miners showed mixed changes, with Anglo American having increased long positions.
• Mid cap miners showed fluctuations, with Valterra Platinum and Kumba Iron Ore having increased short positions.
• Impala showed increased long positions.

14-Week Average Crowding Scores

• Large cap miners had an average long crowding score of 24%.
• Mid cap miners had an average long crowding score of 24%.
• Short crowding scores were higher for most companies, with Kumba Iron Ore having the highest short score.

Stocks Mentioned

Analyst Roster

• Ephrem Ravi: Metals and Mining, +44 20-7986-2462, ephrem.ravi@citi.com
• Krishan Agarwal: Metals and Mining, +44 20-7986-4092, krishan.agarwal@citi.com
• Shashi Shekhar: Metals and Mining, +91 22-4277-5028, shashi.shekhar@citi.com
• Ijeoma Ihuegbu: Metals and Mining, +44 20-7986-3914, ijeoma.ihuegbu@citi.com

Important Disclosures

• Non-US research analysts are not registered with FINRA and may not be subject to certain restrictions.
• Citigroup Global Markets Inc. has made a market in BHP Group Ltd.
• The firm has acted as an advisor to Codelco in an M&A transaction involving Anglo American PLC.
• Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates beneficially owns 1% or more of Befesa.
• The firm has a net long position of 0.5% or more in SSAB.
• The firm has a net short position in Befesa.
• The firm has acted as manager or co-manager for offerings of ArcelorMittal and Norsk Hydro ASA.
• The firm has debt positions of 1 million USD or more in several mining companies.
• The firm has received compensation for investment banking services from various mining companies.
• The firm is expected to receive compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from several companies.
• The firm has received compensation for non-investment banking services from various mining companies.

Summary of Key Trends

• EMEA:

  • Bullish sentiment across miners.
  • FRES has the highest long positioning.
  • SSAB and Acerinox benefited from tariff news.
  • GLEN was most bullish among large cap miners.
  • NYH was most bearish among large cap miners.
  • European steel had high short crowding scores.

• South Africa:

  • Bearish sentiment continued.
  • Impala showed a bullish shift in the past week.
  • Kumba Iron Ore had the highest short score.
  • Anglo American had high long scores.
  • Valterra Platinum had low long scores.

Conclusion

The EMEA and South African Metals & Mining sectors show mixed sentiment and crowding trends, with bullish and bearish positions varying across companies. Crowding scores should be used in conjunction with other factors, and not as a sole investment decision tool. The report also highlights potential conflicts of interest and disclosures related to Citigroup's involvement with several mining companies.