2025-06-17-花旗集团-中东欧_中东和非洲地区要点_12页_195kb

EM Economic Outlook: Citigroup maintains a Buy rating on Kruk (KRU.WA) with an increased target price to Zl 511, due to strong earnings growth (4Q trailing net profit up +24%, cash EBITDA +26%) and anticipation of improved investor appreciation despite a share price drop of -8%, citing potential negative impacts on banks' valuations from economic/political risks.

Strategy & Economics: Investor sentiment has stabilized across regions as US earnings alleviated recession fears; cyclical/growth sectors remain highly crowded, with Communications Services, Technology, and Financials being the most crowded. US large cap positioning increases, while European trends show downward pressure.

Commodities: Gold is expected to peak in its bull cycle soon due to tightening fundamentals, while oil prices surged from April lows to ~$75/bbl due to geopolitical risks in Israel/Iran conflict, with a risk premium of ~$10-15/bbl deemed warranted. Aluminium has a structural bull case with ~20-40% upside, driven by low supply growth and cyclical demand, including AI/datacenter cooling.

Fixed Income & FX: Emerging Market credit spreads widened slightly due to risk-on sentiment threats from Middle East escalations, but sovereign and corporate bonds returned positively; inflows continued, with EM LC seeing strong inflows. Dollar weakening supported EM spreads.

CEEMEA Events: Citi schedules multiple institutional conferences and trips in CEEMEA: Saudi Arabia (June 23-24), CEE Banks Trip (Prague/Vienna/Warsaw, June 23-27), GenAI Summit (New York, June 24), Equity Conferences (Sept 3-5), China Conferences (Nov 11-14), Dubai Conference (Nov 18), Healthcare Conference (Dec 1-5), Consumer Conference (London, Dec 9-10).

Key Rating Changes:

• Kruk (KRU.WA): Target price increased from Zl 484 to Zl 511; Buy rating reiterated due to improvements in earnings estimates and expected ongoing growth.