2025-06-16-花旗集团-中东欧_中东和非洲地区要点_13页_186kb

报告摘要

Oil Prices: Brent oil reached an intraday high of $78.5/bbl following Israel's strikes on Iran, raising concerns about sustained price elevations due to supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical risks.
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook: Deteriorating tensions may limit energy flow disruptions but could impact economies through US de-risking strategies, affecting regional stability and growth forecasts.
Stock Updates: Sasol's model updated with revised EPS for FY25 based on weaker Mining and Fuels, offset by improved Chemicals Africa margins. Prosus model adjusted for share repurchases and Tencent sale, leading to a higher TP of €56 with a "Buy" recommendation.

Oil and Macroeconomic Views: Energy strategists expect a modest oil spike; despite recent data disappointments, a "Goldilocks" scenario is favored, with slower US growth tilting markets. Worst-case hedging strategies suggested involving currency pairs.
Poland Economics: Core inflation eased, but higher oil prices could delay disinflation and monetary easing. NBP's rate cuts may slow due to hawkish communication and market adjustments.
European Economics: Upcoming week features BoE, Norges Bank, and Riksbank policy decisions; Eurozone focus on German ZEW survey and consumer sentiment; UK inflation expected to moderate.

CEEMEA FX and Rates Strategy: Israeli airstrikes may influence regional FX and rates, with analysis expected to assess immediate price implications.
Global FX Flows: EM aggregate net inflows continued, with divergent investor flows; Asia saw accelerated inflows from real money investors, while CEEMEA reversed to an inflow position.

Mining: Sector dividend yield premium narrowed below long-term averages, reflecting declining absolute payout expectations and broader market improvements.
UK Consumer: Sentiment broadly stable but slightly negative; employment is key for resilience, though rising unemployment and lower vacancy rates warrant caution.
Luxury Goods: Most luxury brands increased May prices by 4-7% to counter tariffs, particularly in the US, affecting regional price gaps.
Global Shipping: US container imports fell YoY, with air freight growth slowing, hinting at a potential reversal soon.

No call or target price changes reported. Analyst views may vary based on transaction flows and market access programs.

June: Citi Saudi Conference, CEE Banks Trip, GenAI Summit, Private Company Growth Conference, GEMS Conference, Global TMT Conference, China Conference, Dubai Conference, Global Healthcare Conference, Consumer Conference.
September and November: Various regional conferences in Asia, Middle East, Europe focusing on tech, healthcare, consumer sectors.

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