2025-06-11-花旗集团-中东欧_中东和非洲地区要点_13页_201kb

报告摘要

Key Insights and Sector Updates:

Grupa Pracuj (GPPP.WA): Rating downgraded to Sell from Neutral; target price lowered to ZL 58.60. Revised forecasts show reduced adj. EBITDA by 2-10% for 2025-2027, with challenging domestic growth and pricing. Requires more attractive entry points and project improvements for a positive view.
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI.O): Rating maintained at Buy; model updated post-1Q25 earnings. Hepsiburada acquisition closed, supporting Super App strategy in international expansion despite regulatory and macro headwinds.
Coca-Cola Icecek (CCOLA.IS): Antitrust investigation launched in Turkey; potential fine of TL770mn (~USD20mn) based on 2022 case impact, though not materially significant but may face market negativity.

Sector Analysis:

Global Integrated Oil & Gas: US shale evolution; oil likely peaking with gas still growth potential. Companies may face trend divergence, with some having runway.
Global Machinery: ACT cuts class 8 and MD builds forecasts for 2025-2026 due to weak sentiment. Volumes expected to fall 15% y/y in H1 2026 before growing to +26% in H2 2026; pre-buying removed from forecasts.
EU Chemicals: Valuation metrics show Clariant, Lanxess most net shorted; Air Liquide and Novonesis best held. Crowding data highlights investor positioning.
Strategy & Economics: European equities positive outlook, now structural from tactical; supports recovery despite tariffs. Antitrust puzzles in Turkey may influence asset performance; AI overperformance possibility in Europe.
Commodities: Gas markets tight due to milder US weather and higher TTF storage risks. Aluminium tariffs driven up MWP; EU ETS tightening could push EUAs to €80/t by year-end.

Forthcoming Corporate Access Events:

Rating and Target Price Changes:

Company/Security	Ccy	New Price	Prior Price	Change	Analyst
Grupa Pracuj (GPPP.WA)	Zl	58.6	63.0	Down	Rafal Wiatr
Kaspi.kz (KSPI.O)	US$	115.00	140.00	Down	Ygal Arounian
Note: Details include risk and conditions; report for full context.