2025-06-16-花旗集团-欧洲_中东和非洲地区建筑材料与基础设施_拥挤数据_25页_1mb

EMEA Building Materials & Infrastructure Crowding Data Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of the crowding levels in the Building Materials and Infrastructure sectors in Europe and the Middle East (EMEA), using Citi's quant team crowding scores. These scores are based on five factors: alignment to the most crowded factor (quality), historical relative valuation, historical relative short interest ratio, sell-side rating, and news sentiment and macro exposure. The crowding scores are used to assess market sentiment and the potential for sentimental shifts, but are not intended as a standalone buy/sell signal. Instead, they reflect the degree of market participation and may indicate higher risk when scores are high due to fewer marginal buyers/sellers.

Key Metrics and Trends

Building Materials Sector

• Long crowding score for Heavyside stocks (e.g., Heidelberg) has been on an upward trend, reaching 91% in June 2025.
• Short crowding score for Heavyside stocks has declined, indicating a reduction in bearish sentiment.
• Housebuilders and Merchant/DIY stocks have shown a bearish trend, with both long and short scores increasing.
• Light Side stocks have seen a mixed trend, with long scores fluctuating and short scores rising.
• The Building Material Average has shown a moderate increase in long crowding, while short crowding has remained relatively stable.

Infrastructure Sector

• Infra Road stocks have seen a decline in both long and short crowding over the past few months, with the long score reaching 70% in June 2025.
• Infra Airport stocks have experienced a decline in short crowding and a moderate increase in long crowding, though the overall trend remains bearish.
• The Infrastructure Average has shown a declining trend in both long and short crowding, with the long score at 59% in June 2025.

Sector-Specific Trends

• Heavyside stocks (e.g., Heidelberg) are showing increased bullish sentiment, with long scores rising and short scores falling.
• Housebuilders are experiencing a bearish trend, with both long and short scores increasing.
• Merchant/DIY stocks are showing a mixed trend, with long scores fluctuating and short scores rising.
• Infra Road stocks have seen a decline in long crowding, though they have maintained a bullish stance.
• Infra Airport stocks have seen a decline in short crowding, but their long scores have also fluctuated.

Key Companies Mentioned

Company	RIC	Rating/Risk	Currency	Price*	Target Price
Buzzi	BZU.MI	2	EUR	44.04	50.00
Heidelberg	HEIG.DE	2	EUR	177.60	190.00
Holcim	HOLN.S	2	CHF	93.78	95.00
CRH Plc	CRH.N	1	CHF	73.04	113.00
Vicat	VCTP.PA	2	EUR	55.30	55.00
Breedon	BREE.L	2	USD	5.93	4.40
Forterra	FORT.L	2	EUR	2.29	1.76
Sika	SIKA.S	2	EUR	225.99	200.00
St Gobain	SGOB.PA	1	EUR	96.94	120.00
Kingspan	KSP.I	2	EUR	76.10	83.00
Wienerberger	WBSV.VI	1	EUR	31.68	40.00
Geberit	GEBN.S	2	EUR	680.75	600.00
Rockwool	ROCKb.CO	2	EUR	39.97	330.00
Barratt	BTRW.L	1	EUR	5.55	5.91
Bellway	BWY.L	1	EUR	34.52	31.00
Berkeley	BKGH.L	2	EUR	50.02	40.44
Persimmon	PSN.L	1	EUR	16.25	14.96
Taylor Wimpey	TW.L	1	EUR	1.43	1.50
Vistry	VTYV.L	2	EUR	7.87	6.06
Grafton	GFTU_u.L	1	EUR	11.84	11.80
Howdens	HWDN.L	2	EUR	10.25	8.20
Kingfisher	KGF.L	2	EUR	3.24	3.00
SIG	SHI.L	2	EUR	0.16	0.14
Wickes	WIX.L	2	EUR	2.62	2.02
Travis Perkins	TPK.L	1	EUR	7.28	6.00
Vinci	SGEF.PA	1	EUR	125.25	144.00
Eiffage	FOUG.PA	2	EUR	118.50	115.00
Getlink	GETP.PA	1	EUR	16.40	19.40
Ferrovial	FER.MC	1	EUR	44.43	52.20
Bouygues	BOUY.PA	2	EUR	37.83	39.20
Fraport	FRAG.DE	1	EUR	60.35	70.00
Aena	AENA.MC	2	EUR	232.80	220.00
Zurich Airport	FHZN.S	1	EUR	239.44	235.00
ADP	ADP.PA	2	EUR	108.20	113.00

Investment Rating and Risk

• Investment ratings are Buy, Neutral (Hold), or Sell, based on expected total return (ETR) and risk.
• Risk ratings are either High or No Risk Rating, with High risk indicating price volatility and fundamental risks.
• Catalyst Watch and Short Term Views (STV) are used to highlight near-term price movements based on specific catalysts or events, but do not affect the fundamental equity rating.

Important Disclosures

• Citi's non-US research analysts are not registered with FINRA and may not be subject to NYSE Rule 472 and NASD Rule 2711 restrictions.
• Sales and Trading personnel are not independent research analysts and have not contributed to the report.
• Citi has significant financial interests in several companies and acts as a corporate broker or liquidity provider in some instruments.
• Investment ratings are not linked to specific transactions, and analysts may have arranged corporate access events with covered companies.
• Recommendations may be influenced by non-investment banking services and financial interests.

Summary of Investment Rating Distribution

Rating	% of Companies	% of Companies with Citi as Investment Banking Client
Buy	33%	63%
Hold	44%	51%
Sell	23%	49%

Conclusion

The report highlights the crowding levels in the Building Materials and Infrastructure sectors, emphasizing that high crowding scores may indicate increased risk due to limited marginal participants. While Heavyside stocks are showing increased bullish sentiment, Housebuilders and Merchant/DIY stocks are experiencing a bearish trend. The Infrastructure sector, particularly Infra Road, has seen a decline in both long and short crowding, while Infra Airport stocks show mixed trends. Investors should consider crowding scores as one of many factors, not as a sole decision-making tool, and be aware of the potential conflicts of interest and financial interests that may influence recommendations.