20150728-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_13页_2mb

报告摘要

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Hong Kong and Chinese equity markets, including key indices, sector performance, stock fundamentals, and market data. It also includes insights into ETFs, short-selling activity, and the A-share premium to H-share.

Key Market Trends

Hang Seng Index (HSI): The HSI fell by 3.1% on the day, with a year-to-date (YTD) decline of 3.2%. It broke the 250-day moving average (MA), indicating potential for a rebound.
HSCEI: The HSCEI dropped by 3.8% and fell below its previous trading range, suggesting a bearish trend.
Shanghai Composite: It declined by 8.5% on the day, with a YTD increase of 15.2%.
Shenzhen Composite: It fell by 7.0% on the day, with a YTD increase of 52.6%.

Stock in Focus: China Dongxiang (3818.HK)

Price Movement: Last close was HK$1.99, with an entry point at HK$1.96 and a target at HK$2.40. Stop-loss is at HK$1.80.
Performance: The stock has seen a YTD decline of 10.7%, with a 1-month drop of 18.1% and a 3-month decline of 34.4%.
Market Cap: HK$11.02 billion.
Volume: 3-month average daily volume is 22.61 million shares.
Valuation: FY1 Forward P/E is 14.3X, indicating potential for value appreciation.
Business Transformation: The company has successfully transformed its business, enhancing brand image and improving gross profit margins to 53%, up from a three-year average of 48.7%.
Inventory Pressure: Inventory turnover decreased from 118 days to 114 days, showing easing of inventory pressure.
Investment Value: The strong cash balance and high dividend rate make it an attractive investment opportunity.

Today's Top Picks

Crocodile (122):
- Last close: HK$1.23
- Target: HK$1.35
- Stop-loss: HK$1.10
- Reason: Share price has risen for three days, possibly due to business changes.
A8 New Media (800):
- Last close: HK$0.65
- Target: HK$0.76
- Stop-loss: HK$0.60
- Reason: Company recently had a rights issue and plans to invest in the online game music business.

Sector Performance Overview

Best Performing Sectors:
- REITs: -0.9% (1D), -1.4% (5D), 1.4% (1M)
- HK Telecoms: -1.1% (1D), 1.7% (5D), 6.9% (1M)
- Consumer Staples: -2.5% (1D), -3.8% (5D), -2.5% (1M)
- Local Property: -2.6% (1D), -3.0% (5D), -4.3% (1M)
- Local Banks: -2.6% (1D), -2.2% (5D), -4.8% (1M)
- HK Consumer Group: -2.7% (1D), -4.2% (5D), -9.5% (1M)
- Airline: -2.7% (1D), -2.6% (5D), -2.9% (1M)
- Chinese Banks: -2.9% (1D), -3.5% (5D), -12.5% (1M)
- Logistics: -3.6% (1D), -3.9% (5D), -8.0% (1M)
- Chinese Telecoms: -3.9% (1D), -2.4% (5D), -6.9% (1M)
- Department Store: -4.1% (1D), -5.7% (5D), -12.2% (1M)
- Gas: -4.4% (1D), -5.3% (5D), -8.8% (1M)
- Chinese Insurers: -4.5% (1D), -4.2% (5D), -14.6% (1M)
- Other Metals: -4.7% (1D), -5.5% (5D), -20.9% (1M)
- IPP: -4.7% (1D), -5.4% (5D), -11.9% (1M)

Major Stocks in Best Performing Sectors

REITs: Yuexiu REIT (405), Fortune REIT (778), Prosperity REIT (808), LINK Reit (823), Champion REIT (2778)
HK Telecoms: HutchTel HK (215), Smartone (315), HKT-SS (6823)
Consumer Staples: Want Want (151), Uni-President (220), Tingyi (322), Hengan Int'l (1044), Sun Art Retail (6808)
Local Property: CK Hutchison (1), Henderson Land (12), SHK Prop (16), New World Dev (17), Sino Land (83)
Local Banks: Hang Seng Bank (11), BEA (23), Chong Hing Bank (1111), BOCHK (2388), Dah Sing Banking (2356)
HK Consumer Group: Sa Sa Int'l (178), Cafe De Coral (341), Luk Fook (590), Bonjour (653), I.T (999)
Airline: Cathay Pacific (293), China East Air (670), Air China (753), China South Air (1055)
Chinese Banks: CCB (939), ABC (1288), ICBC (1398), BankComm (3328), BOC (3988)
Logistics: Kerry Log Net (636), SITC (1308)
Chinese Telecoms: China Telecom (728), China Unicom (762), China Mobile (941)
Department Store: NWDS China (825), Springland (1700), Intime (1833), Golden Eagle (3308), Parkson Group (3368)
Gas: China Gas (384), Beijing Enterprises (392), ENN Energy (2688), CIMC Enric (3899), China Res Gas (1193)
Chinese Insurers: China Taiping Ins. (966), NCI (1336), CPIC (2601), Ping An (2318), China Life (2628)
Other Metals: Jiangxi Copper (358), CMOC (3993), Zhaojin Mining (1818), Zijin Mining (2899)
IPP: China Res Power (836), Huaneng Power Int'l (902), Datang Int'l Power (991), Huadian Power Int'l (1071), China Power Int'l (2380)

Valuations of Major Indices

Index	FY15E P/E (X)	Long-term avg. fwd. P/E (X)	Deviation from avg. (%)	FY1 EPS growth (%)	FY2 EPS growth (%)
Hang Seng Index	11.9	11.4	4.4	-11.2	9.9
HSCEI	8.3	8.9	-6.9	0.5	9.9
Shanghai Comp	15.4	11.1	38.6	23.5	13.6
S&P 500	17.4	14.4	21.4	3.9	11.4

Market Data Highlights

Best and Worst Performers

Best Performers:
- NORTH MINING SHA (433.HK): 44.6% (1D), 44.6% (5D), -14.5% (1M), -24.4% (YTD)
- G-RESOURCES GROU (1051.HK): 4.6% (1D), -0.9% (5D), -9.6% (1M), 22.8% (YTD)
- C C LAND HOLDING (1224.HK): 2.7% (1D), 1.1% (5D), -3.1% (1M), 40.7% (YTD)
- SMARTONE TELECOM (315.HK): 1.0% (1D), 4.7% (5D), 15.9% (1M), 20.0% (YTD)
- WUMART-H (1025.HK): 1.0% (1D), -2.8% (5D), -13.1% (1M), -26.4% (YTD)
Worst Performers:
- BOYAA INTERACTIV (434.HK): -18.6% (1D), -23.4% (5D), -41.7% (1M), -36.0% (YTD)
- COOLPAD (2369.HK): -15.3% (1D), -24.7% (5D), -43.4% (1M), 11.8% (YTD)
- FORGAME HOLDINGS (484.HK): -14.4% (1D), -14.8% (5D), -36.9% (1M), 1.9% (YTD)
- HONGHUA GROUP (196.HK): -14.1% (1D), -13.0% (5D), -23.9% (1M), -32.3% (YTD)
- PETRO-KING (2178.HK): -13.5% (1D), -10.8% (5D), -27.2% (1M), -21.3% (YTD)

HSCI Volume Filter

NORTH MINING SHA (433.HK): Avg. vol. 40.8M, Prev. vol. 308.2M, % increase 655.6%
POLYTEC ASSET HO (208.HK): Avg. vol. 1.3M, Prev. vol. 4.7M, % increase 269.3%
C C LAND HOLDING (1224.HK): Avg. vol. 3.1M, Prev. vol. 10.2M, % increase 234.0%
SMARTONE TELECOM (315.HK): Avg. vol. 4.7M, Prev. vol. 19.6M, % increase 10.8%
BOYAA INTERACTIV (434.HK): Avg. vol. 6.0M, Prev. vol. 16.8M, % increase 178.3%
EVERGRANDE (3333.HK): Avg. vol. 131.0M, Prev. vol. 338.3M, % increase 158.2%
SUN HUNG KAI CO (86.HK): Avg. vol. 2.2M, Prev. vol. 5.2M, % increase 131.0%
GOME ELECTRICAL (493.HK): Avg. vol. 227.2M, Prev. vol. 512.6M, % increase 125.6%
BAIYUNSHAN PH-H (874.HK): Avg. vol. 2.7M, Prev. vol. 5.6M, % increase 108.3%
COMBA TELECOM SY (2342.HK): Avg. vol. 9.6M, Prev. vol. 19.6M, % increase 104.9%

Most Short Sold Stocks

SUN ART RETAIL (6808.HK): Shortsell turnover 38.4M, % of total shortsell turnover 0.3%, % of own turnover 55.7%, FY1 P/E 16.6X, FY2 P/E 15.8X
GOLDEN EAGLE RET (3308.HK): Shortsell turnover 8.4M, % of total shortsell turnover 0.1%, % of own turnover 55.1%, FY1 P/E 13.2X, FY2 P/E 12.3X
ASM PACIFIC (1112.HK): Shortsell turnover 12.2M, % of total shortsell turnover 0.1%, % of own turnover 51.5%, FY1 P/E 9.1X, FY2 P/E 8.4X
BOYAA INTERACTIV (434.HK): Shortsell turnover 63.1M, % of total shortsell turnover 0.3%, % of own turnover 51.4%, FY1 P/E 6.3X, FY2 P/E 4.8X
EVERGRANDE (3333.HK): Shortsell turnover 3.8M, % of total shortsell turnover 0.0%, % of own turnover 51.5%, FY1 P/E 9.7X, FY2 P/E 8.3X
HISENSE KELON -H (921.HK): Shortsell turnover 10.16M, % of total shortsell turnover 0.0%, % of own turnover 51.5%, FY1 P/E 115.8X, FY2 P/E 106.7X
PETROCHINA-H (857.HK): Shortsell turnover 10.70M, % of total shortsell turnover 0.0%, % of own turnover 51.5%, FY1 P/E 106.7X, FY2 P/E 105.5X
CHINA VANKE-H (2202.HK): Shortsell turnover 18.46M, % of total shortsell turnover 0.0%, % of own turnover 51.5%, FY1 P/E -4.0%, FY2 P/E -5.3%

External Market Conditions

U.S. Stocks: Dropped due to the retreat in the China market. Dow closed at 17,440, down 127 points. S&P500 closed at 2,067, down 12 points. Nasdaq Composite closed at 5,039, down 48 points.
Gold: Rose due to a weaker USD and a downturn in the China market. New York gold futures finished at US$1,096.4/oz, up US$10.90.
Oil Prices: Remained under pressure. New York crude oil futures closed at US$47.39/bbl, down 75 cents.

Interest Rates

U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: 0.6536%, down 2.42 bps over 5 days.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: 2.2247%, down 10.06 bps over 5 days.
U.S. 30-year Treasury yield: 2.9406%, down 12.11 bps over 5 days.
HK 1-month HIBOR: 0.2404%, up 0.14 bps over 1 month.
HK 3-month HIBOR: 0.3899%, up 0.18 bps over 1 month.
SH 1-month HIBOR: 3.0370%, up 1.90 bps over 1 month.
SH 3-month HIBOR: 3.1645%, up 0.82 bps over 1 month.

Exchange Rates

USD Dollar Index: 96.5470, down 0.8% over 5 days.
USD/HKD: 7.7511, no change over 5 days.
EUR/USD: 1.1095, up 1.5% over 5 days.
USD/JPY: 123.21, down 0.6% over 5 days.
GBP/USD: 1.5566, down 0.1% over 5 days.
USD/CHF: 0.9619, down 0.4% over 5 days.
AUD/USD: 0.7285, down 1.8% over 5 days.
NZD/USD: 0.6642, up 0.2% over 5 days.
USD/CAD: 1.3027, down 0.6% over 5 days.
USD/CNY: 6.2082, no change over 5 days.
USD/CNH: 6.2189, down 0.2% over 5 days.

Precious Metals and Commodities

CRB Index: 202.7, down 4.3% over 5 days.
Comex Gold: US$1,092.6/oz, down 1.0% over 5 days.
Comex Silver: US$14.520/oz, down 1.8% over 5 days.
Nymex WTI Crude: US$47.12/bbl, down 6.4% over 5 days.
ICE Brent Crude: US$53.09/bbl, down 6.9% over 5 days.
LME Copper: 5188, down 5.3% over 5 days.
LME Aluminum: 1639, down 3.0% over 5 days.
CBT Wheat: US$503.50/bushel, down 4.0% over 5 days.
CBT Corn: US$374.00/bushel, down 8.0% over 5 days.
CBT Soybean: US$965.75/bushel, down 5.2% over 5 days.

A-Share Premium to H-Share

LUOYANG GLASS-H (1108): H share price HK$4.13, A share price RMB17.76, A-share premium to H-share 436.9%
SINOPEC OILFIE-H (1033): H share price HK$2.36, A share price RMB9.69, A-share premium to H-share 412.6%
CHINA SOUTHERN-H (1055): H share price HK$7.97, A share price RMB12.40, A-share premium to H-share 94.2%
ZHEJIANG SHIBA-H (1057): H share price HK$15.38, A share price RMB52.01, A-share premium to H-share 322.3%
CMOC-H (3993): H share price HK$5.03, A share price RMB15.62, A-share premium to H-share 287.7%
PING AN-H (2318): H share price HK$47.15, A share price RMB36.56, A-share premium to H-share -3.2%
CHINA VANKE-H (2202): H share price HK$18.46, A share price RMB14.20, A-share premium to H-share -4.0%
ICBC-H (1398): H share price HK$5.44, A share price RMB4.82, A-share premium to H-share 10.6%
ZIJIN MINING-H (2899): H share price HK$2.14, A share price RMB3.95, A-share premium to H-share 130.4%
CHINA OILFIELD-H (2883): H share price HK$9.85, A share price RMB20.21, A-share premium to H-share 156.2%