20150729-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_13页_2mb

报告摘要

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the current market conditions, focusing on the performance of major indices, specific stocks, and sector trends in the Hong Kong and Chinese markets. It includes insights into REITs, ETFs, and the impact of macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodities.

Main Market Indices

Hang Seng Index (HSI):
- Close: 24,504
- Daily Change (%): +0.6
- Year-to-Date (YTD) Change (%): +3.8
- Trend: Forming a triangle
- Market Turnover (HK$bn): 34.7
- Daily Change (%): +0.94%
HSCEI (Hang Seng China Enterprises Index):
- Close: 11,173
- Daily Change (%): -0.5
- YTD Change (%): -6.8
- Trend: Stay at lower trading range
- Market Turnover (HK$bn): 23.9
- Daily Change (%): -2.53%
Shanghai Composite:
- Close: 3,663
- Daily Change (%): -1.7
- YTD Change (%): +13.2
- Market Turnover (HK$bn): 115.3
- Daily Change (%): -0.84%

Top Picks and Stock Highlights

Today's Top Pick

Global Bio-Chem (809.HK):
- Last Trading Day Closing: HK$0.425
- Purchase Price: Current price
- Target Price: HK$0.465
- Stop-loss Price: HK$0.385
- Reason: Possible takeover bid, expected price increase
Reorient Group (376.HK):
- Last Trading Day Closing: HK$13.30
- Purchase Price: Current price
- Target Price: HK$15.00
- Stop-loss Price: HK$12.40
- Reason: Share price may bottom out from previous correction

Stock in Focus: Fortune REIT (778.HK)

Last Close: HK$8.20
Entry: HK$8.20
Target: HK$9.00
Stop-loss: HK$7.33
YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: +4.6% / +6.0% / +3.4% / +11.6%
Market Cap: HK$15.44bn
3M Average Daily Volume: 1.98mn shares
FY1 Forward P/E: 19X
Performance: Offers stable returns in a volatile market
Assets: Owns 17 retail properties in Hong Kong, including 3.18m sq ft of retail space and 2,713 parking spaces
Recent Performance: Distributable earnings increased by 12% YoY, dividend yield of 6.0% (vs. 4% for The Link REIT)
Recent Acquisitions and Sales: Acquired Laguna Plaza (HK$1.9bn), sold Nob Hill Square

Sector Performance

Best Performing Sectors (Daily % Change)

Handset and related accessories: +1.7%
Coal: +1.4%
Automobile: +1.2%
Consumer Staples: +1.0%
Oil-related: +0.9%
Technology: +0.9%
REITs: +0.6%
Local Banks: +0.5%
Dairy: +0.3%
Chinese Telecoms: +0.1%

Worst Performing Sectors (Daily % Change)

Local Property: -0.1%
Gas: -0.1%
Marine: -0.2%
Environmental and New Energy: -0.2%

Major Stocks in Best Performing Sectors

Handset and related accessories: Tongda Group (698), AAC Tech (2018), Sunny Optical (2382), Coolpad Group (2369), TCL Comm (2618)
Coal: China Shenhua (1088), Yanzhou Coal (1171), China Coal (1898)
Automobile: Geely Auto (175), Dongfeng Motor (489), BRILLIANCE CHI (1114), BYD Co. (1211), Great Wall Motor (2333)
Consumer Staples: Want Want (151), Uni-President (220), Tingyi (322), Hengan Int'l (1044), Sun Art Retail (6808)
Oil-related: Sinopec (386), PetroChina (857), CNOOC (883), Hilong Hldg. (1623), China Oilfield Services (2883)
Technology: Kingdee (268), Chinasoft (354), Tencent (700), NetDragon (777), Kingsoft (3888)
REITs: Yuexiu REIT (405), Fortune REIT (778), Prosperity REIT (808), LINK Reit (823), Champion REIT (2778)
Local Banks: Hang Seng Bank (11), BEA (23), Chong Hing Bank (1111), BOCHK (2388), Dah Sing Banking (2356)
Dairy: Biostime (1112), CH Modern (1117), YST Dairy (1431), Mengniu (2319), Huishan Dairy (6863)
Chinese Telecoms: China Telecom (728), China Unicom (762), China Mobile (941)
HK Consumer Group: Sa Sa Int'l (178), Cafe De Coral (341), Luk Fook (590), Bonjour (653), I.T (999)
Local Property: CK Hutchison (1), Henderson Land (12), SHK Prop (16), New World Dev (17), Sino Land (83)
Gas: China Gas (384), Beijing Enterprises (392), ENN Energy (2688), CIMC Enric (3899), China Res Gas (1193)
Marine: OOIL (316), Sinotrans Ship (368), Cosco Pacific (1199), Pacific Basin (2343), CSCL (2866)
Environmental and New Energy: China EB Int'l (257), BJ Ent Water (371), China Longyuan (916), Xinyi Solar (968), CGN Power (1816)

Valuations and Earnings Growth

Index	FY15E P/E (X)	Long-term avg. fwd. P/E (X)	Deviation from avg. (%)	FY1 EPS growth (%)	FY2 EPS growth (%)
Hang Seng Index	11.8	11.4	+3.6	-11.1	+9.9
HSCEI	8.0	8.9	-9.9	+0.5	+9.9
Shanghai Comp	15.2	11.1	+36.8	+23.0	+13.6
S&P 500	17.7	14.4	+23.0	+3.9	+11.4

Market Data

Best and Worst Performers

Best Performers:

RENHE COMMERCIAL (1387.HK): +13.0%
BLOOMAGE BIOTE (963.HK): +7.5%
MIE HOLDINGS COR (1555.HK): +7.5%
TRULY INTL HLDGS (732.HK): +7.5%
CIFI HOLDINGS GR (884.HK): +6.1%

Worst Performers:

GREENLAND HONG K (337.HK): -8.5%
NORTH MINING SHA (433.HK): -6.8%
ZIJIN MINING-H (2899.HK): -6.1%
UNIVERSAL HEALTH (2211.HK): -5.7%
LEE & MAN PAPER (2314.HK): -5.7%

HSCI Volume Filter

Company	Stock Code	Price (HK$)	1D Change (%)	Avg. Volume (m shares)	Prev. Volume (m shares)	% Increase	FY1 P/E (X)	FY2 P/E (X)
BLOOMAGE BIOTE	963.HK	13.120	+7.5	2.0	6.6	230.4	16.8	12.7
JIANGSU EXPRES-H	177.HK	9.750	-2.7	3.5	8.6	144.5	14.2	13.5
CHINA SINGYES SO	750.HK	7.320	-3.7	5.3	12.9	144.5	5.4	4.6
GREAT WALL MOT-H	2333.HK	27.650	+1.8	12.5	28.0	124.5	6.6	5.6
NORTH MINING SHA	433.HK	0.275	-6.8	36.4	78.5	115.3	N/A	N/A

Most Short Sold Stocks

Company	Stock Code	Price (HK$)	1D Change (%)	Shortsell Turnover (HK$m)	% of Total Shortsell Turnover	% of Own Turnover	FY1 P/E (X)	FY2 P/E (X)
CHINA BLUECHEM-H	3983.HK	2.460	-2.0	6.4	0.0	54.9	7.8	7.1
GOLDIN FINANCIAL	530.HK	5.920	+2.2	21.7	0.2	54.0	N/A	N/A
ESPRIT HLDGS	330.HK	7.180	+0.4	14.6	0.1	53.2	276.2	59.8
MACAU LEGEND	1680.HK	2.170	-2.7	12.1	0.1	51.5	144.7	46.2
SUN ART RETAIL	6808.HK	6.020	-2.9	35.3	0.3	51.2	16.1	15.3

External Market Conditions

U.S. Stocks: Rebounded with better-than-expected earnings reports.
Dow Jones: Closed at 17,630, up 189 points.
S&P 500: Closed at 2,093, rose 25 points.
Nasdaq Composite: Closed at 5,089, up 49 points.
ADR Impact: ADRs rose, effectively pushing HSI up 111 points to close at 24,616.
Gold: Dropped to US $1,096.2/oz due to Fed meeting focus.
Oil Prices: Increased as investors expected a decline in U.S. crude inventory.
U.S. Rate Hike: Expected to be gradual and modest.

Interest Rates and Exchange Rates

Interest Rates:
- U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: 0.6841%
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: 2.2571%
- U.S. 30-year Treasury yield: 2.9665%
- HK 1-month HIBOR: 0.2433%
- HK 3-month HIBOR: 0.3909%
- SH 1-month HIBOR: 3.0300%
- SH 3-month HIBOR: 3.1638%
Exchange Rates:
- USD Dollar Index: 96.6160
- USD/HKD: 7.7510
- EUR/USD: 1.1071
- USD/JPY: 123.57
- GBP/USD: 1.5611
- USD/CHF: 0.9614
- AUD/USD: 0.7346
- NZD/USD: 0.6715
- USD/CAD: 1.2928
- USD/CNY: 6.2089
- USD/CNH: 6.2172

Precious Metals and Commodities

CRB Index: 204.4
Comex Gold: US$1,095.2/oz
Comex Silver: US$14.660/oz
Nymex WTI Crude: US$47.79/bbl
ICE Brent Crude: US$53.1/bbl
LME Copper: HK$5,297.5
LME Aluminum: HK$1,655
CBT Wheat: HK$510.25
CBT Corn: HK$373.50
CBT Soybean: HK$977.25

A-share Premium to H-share

Company	H Share Code	H Share Price (HK$)	A Share Code	A Share Price (RMB)	A-share Premium to H-share (%)
LUOYANG GLASS-H	1108	4.37	600876	19.54	458.2
SINOPEC OILFIE-H	1033	2.41	600871	8.83	357.4
ZHEJIANG SHIBA-H	1057	15.38	002703	52.01	322.3
CMOC-H	3993	5.01	603993	15.93	296.9
CHINA SHENHUA-H	1088	14.60	601088	17.09	46.1
CHINA VANKE-H	2202	18.50	000002	14.62	-1.3
PING AN-H	2318	46.00	601318	35.10	-4.7

Top 20 Most Traded ETFs

ETF Code	ETF Name	Price (HK$)	1D Change (%)	5D Change (%)
2822	CSOP FTSE CH-HKD	13.90	-2.11	-8.91
2823	ISHARES FTSE A50	12.12	-0.33	-7.76
2800	TRACKER FUND HK	25.15	+0.80	-3.82
2828	HS H-SHARE ETF	114.10	-0.52	-5.55
3188	CHINAAMC 300-HKD	46.85	-1.47	-9.03
82822	CSOP FTSE CH-RMB	11.16	-1.93	-8.97
83199	CSOP 5Y ETF RMB	107.55	+0.14	+0.14
83188	CHINAAMC 300-CNY	37.65	-1.18	-8.73
3147	CSOP SZSE ETF-HK	11.28	-2.25	-10.19
2827	CSI 300 CHINA	34.15	-1.73	-9.05
2840	SPDR GOLD SHARES	815.00	-0.37	-0.73
2833	HSI ETF	249.80	+0.64	-3.92
3081	VALUEGOLD ETF	26.75	-1.11	-0.93
2801	ISHARES MSCI CHI	21.35	+0.00	-5.95
83100	E FUND CSA A-CNY	33.65	-0.00	-5.95