2022-02-28-国际可持续发展研究所-燃气压力_探索南非燃气发电的案例（英）_56页_1mb

报告摘要

Gas Pressure: Exploring the Case for Gas-fired Power in South Africa

A Report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD)

Executive Summary & Key Findings

🔥 Urgent but Questionable Need

South Africa faces energy shortages due to Eskom’s coal fleet aging out and financial distress. However, gas-to-power is warned against as a costly and risky solution:

Not Technically Necessary Until 2035: Renewables (wind/solar) and storage can meet bulk & peaking needs cheaper and cleaner.
High Risks: Gas investments face climate change liabilities, stranded assets (e.g., India’s 5.7 GW gas plants), and affordability issues due to volatile gas prices.
Economic Losses: RMI4P’s flawed PPA structure could cost South Africans ZAR 42 billion in overpriced gas electricity.

⚠️ Major Risks of Gas-to-Power

Climate Impact: Gas emits GHGs; methane leakage undermines its “cleaner-than-coal” claim.
Stranded Assets: Gas may become uneconomical due to advancing storage and renewable costs.
Financial Burden: High capital costs (e.g., IRP 2019 allocates 3,000 MW but market enthusiasm suggests 14,000+ MW plans).
Supply Volatility: Reliance on Mozambique’s depleting gas fields and costly LNG imports exposes South Africa to price shocks.
Just Transition: Gas would replicate coal’s job displacement and social costs, delaying a fair energy transition.

💡 Alternatives Are Superior

Bulk Supply: Renewables cheaper (LCOE 10–30% lower than gas).
Peaking/Backup: Batteries are now cheaper than gas peakers (LCOE for storage halves since 2018).
Long-Term Strategy: Green hydrogen could replace gas by 2030s but requires policy shifts to integrate.

📈 Recommendations

Pause Gas Development: Moratorium on new gas-to-power projects until 2030.
Scale Renewables & Storage: Increase renewable capacity by 50% faster with battery storage.
Revise Policies: Abandon outdated IRP assumptions and phase out gas by 2030s.

📋 Document Summary

A comprehensive analysis of gas-fired power in South Africa’s energy mix concludes that current and emerging renewable technologies obviate the need for gas investments. Key recommendations stress the urgency to prioritize renewables, storage, and grid upgrades to avoid costly and stranded assets from gas infrastructure.

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