20240205-中原期货-铜铝周报_海外降息预期降温_铜铝承压走弱_35页_8mb

报告摘要

Recent Fed decision maintained interest rates at 5.25%-5.50%, with a hint of no cut in March due to strong non-farm payrolls data. US job market remains resilient, cooling market expectations for Fed interest rate reductions.

Demand is weak, with downstream industries in holiday mode and activities slowing. High inventory levels, including a 103万吨 increase in SMM copper stockpiles over the week to 1023万吨, indicating three consecutive weeks of acceleration. Refining margins are under pressure, potentially leading to production cuts.
Key price range for SHFE Copper 2403: resistance at 69200 yuan/ton, support at 68200 yuan/ton.
Strategies: Shorts may face pressure from macro headwinds; medium-term watching for margin pressures on refining.
Risk factors: Shifts in global monetary policy, supply chain disruptions like Chinese smelter constraints; production adjustments if margins worsen.

Supply is high with stable operating capacity, but concerns about potential shutdowns in regions like Yunnan. Seasonal demand decline in the off-peak period is evident, with SOC inventory rising 35万吨 to 472万吨. Industry profits remain elevated due to high energy costs, especially for alumina.
Key price range for SHFE Aluminum 2403: resistance at 19100 yuan/ton, support at 18500 yuan/ton.
Strategies: Price is bearish due to macro cooling and seasonal factors; focus on inventory builds in medium term.
Risk factors: Global monetary tightness affecting demand; regional curtailments or ramp-ups; inventory accumulation pace and profit margins.

Production is curtailed in parts of North China due to supply constraints, leading to lower industry capacity. Costs are supported by high mineral prices, but fundamentals show limited cost-cutting space; profits are near-year highs. Demand from the aluminum sector remains stable.
Key price range for SHFE Alumina 2403: resistance at 3250 yuan/ton, support at 3000 yuan/ton.
Strategies: Elevated spot prices limit immediate downside; short-term trends may stabilize if supply issues ease.
Risk factors: Changes in aluminum ore and chemical inputs; potential spill-over from macro slowdowns on demand.

Markets are under broad macro headwinds from Fed policy and data. Inventory trends and supply-demand balances are key variables. Short-term volatility is expected but within defined ranges.
Future focus areas include US economic indicators, Chinese holiday recovery, and global supply chains as risks materialize.

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