IMF-低收入和脆弱国家的通货膨胀与货币政策——以几内亚为例（英）-2023.4-31页_2mb

Inflation and Monetary Policy in a Low-Income and Fragile State: The Case of Guinea

Introduction

Guinea, a low-income African nation with abundant mineral resources, experiences high and persistent inflation driven by external and domestic factors. The country's inflation, averaging 12% since the 2000s, poses challenges for monetary policy due to institutional fragility and frequent shocks, including pandemics, commodity price fluctuations, and political instability.

Key Findings

External factors, such as global commodity and transport prices, significantly influence inflation through high exchange rate pass-through. Domestic factors, including monetary policy and fiscal dominance, play a substantial role. Guinea's central bank, with a base money targeting regime, has effectively used an exchange rate channel to buffer external shocks, reducing inflation during crises like the Ebola outbreak and military coups.

Analysis

Inflation persistence is high, with an AR(1) coefficient of 0.8, compared to SSA peers. Recent reforms enhancing exchange rate flexibility improved policy transmission, but fiscal dominance and shallow financial markets limit effectiveness. External factors account for most inflation dynamics, while monetary policy can mitigate impacts.

Recommendations

Strengthen the central bank's independence to reduce fiscal dominance, potentially transitioning to an inflation targeting framework. Increased exchange rate flexibility and better surveillance could lead to more stable inflation and support economic diversification.