2023-05-08-IMF-低收入和脆弱国家的通货膨胀与货币政策——以几内亚为例（英）_31页_2mb

Inflation and Monetary Policy in a Low-Income and Fragible State: The Case of Guinea

This study analyzes inflation dynamics and monetary policy effectiveness in Guinea, a low-income, fragile state in Sub-Saharan Africa. Inflation in Guinea averaged around 12% from the early 2000s and remains persistently high and driven largely by external factors, particularly fluctuations in global commodity prices, transport costs, and oil prices. Domestic factors like high food price volatility exacerbated inflation's responsiveness.

Guinea employs an autonomous monetary policy framework targeting price stability via base money growth, but this has been influenced by fiscal dominance and limited central bank autonomy. While achieving moderately flexible exchange rates, constraints on policy transmission remain due to shallow financial markets, high reserve requirements, and significant dollarization (30%).

Key findings include:

• External drivers dominate inflation (~65% short-term contribution), aligning with studies of low-income countries.
• Monetary policy effectiveness is notable via the exchange rate channel, with moderate pass-through effects on prices (0.5% after 12 months).
• In periods of significant external shocks, contractionary monetary policy helped mitigate inflation by appreciating the exchange rate and offsetting some international price pressures.
• Financial deepening limitations (low private credit-to-GDP ratio) restrict monetary transmission.

The analysis suggests that continued reforms strengthening central bank independence and increasing exchange rate flexibility could enhance policy credibility and inflation targeting credibility. However, balancing external vulnerability with domestic price stability remains challenging.