20240331-华泰期货-天然橡胶_合成橡胶周报_关注国内库存拐点_13页_907kb

报告摘要

Market Focus:

Supply side is key. Monitor weather in Yunnan main production area and opening of the harvest season. Also track maintenance schedules for upstream styrene-butadiene (SB) plants.

Natural Rubber Analysis:

Prices: Raw material prices, especially gua water, have fallen; the gua-water to cup-gum price spread is narrowing. Smoke sheet remains resilient due to limited supply. Expect further declines in gua-water prices as weather concerns ease, reducing cost support.
Supply: Yunnan is starting trial harvesting with favorable weather, but rain could disrupt; post-harvest, focus on demand diversion from concentrated milk rubber to dry rubber. Current supply is weak due to off-season, but global new harvest begins mid-May.
Demand: Semi-truck tires' production capacity is rising slightly, while all-steel tires are falling. Overall demand changes are minor, with splits based on overseas orders.
Inventory: Inventory in Qingdao port and the broader market is rising due to delayed shipments. Limited demand increases and potential inventory accumulation limit near-term supply pressures.
Strategy: Neutral; short-term focus on supply changes. Recommend caution as Yunnan's harvest may increase supply, reducing volatility. Risk: Slow domestic demand recovery; global production releases could ease prices.

Synthetic Rubber Analysis (Styrene-Butadiene Rubber - BR):

Raw Materials: Butadiene prices are firm due to low inventory; cost support is strong. Profit margins are high for butadiene suppliers but not rising further. Low import pressure domestically.
Production: High-conversion SB output decreased slightly; production continues due to ongoing plant maintenance, leading to small deficits.
Inventory: Butadiene port inventory is falling; SB producer and trader stocks are low, keeping total inventory in decline.
Demand: Similar to natural rubber, with semi-truck tires improving and all-steel tires lagging. Overseas orders support semi-truck demand.
Strategy: Neutral; expect range-bound prices with limited downside due to supply tightness from maintenance and overseas orders. Risk: Slower demand in China; global output increases.

General Strategy and Risk:

For natural rubber, short-term fluctuations stem from supply outlook; wait to see impacts post- Yunnan harvest. For BR, prices may stabilize or fluctuate mildly.
Key risks include slow domestic demand restoration and global supply surges. Overall, balances in demand and supply prevent acute imbalances.

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