2023-06-05-IATA-2023年第一季度航空运输报告_34页_936kb

Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook Summary (Q1 2023)

Core Content Overview

The Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook by IATA provides an in-depth analysis of the global air transport industry's performance, focusing on the business cycle, sustainability efforts, and passenger and cargo traffic trends for Q1 2023. It also outlines regional outlooks and highlights key economic and environmental factors influencing the sector.

Main Points

Global Economic Outlook

• The global economy is expected to grow at around 3% in 2023, down from 3.4% in 2022, but aligning with the historical average since the 1970s.
• World merchandise trade growth is projected to slow to 1.7% in 2023 from 2.7% in 2022, although trade volumes reached record levels in 2022 and are now exceeding 2019 levels.
• Inflation has remained high, with global CPI at 8.7% in 2022, likely decreasing to 7% in 2023. However, it continues to impact real interest rates and debt holders.
• Unemployment rates in advanced economies, including the US and OECD countries, have reached historic lows, indicating a strong labor market, despite the slowdown in the business cycle.
• The US dollar depreciation offers some near-term relief, reducing the cost of goods and debt denominated in USD, although it is less supportive for Europe.

Sustainability and Energy Transition

• Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is a critical component in achieving net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050, with IATA estimating that SAF could account for 65% of the required emissions abatement.
• As of March 2023, there have been 34 publicly announced SAF offtake agreements and 17 non-binding agreements, totaling around 25 million metric tonnes of blended SAF.
• The HEFA pathway is the most common for SAF production, followed by Syngas-FT, while AtJ and PtL pathways are growing in importance, especially due to their larger offtake agreements.
• The total renewable fuel capacity is estimated at 55 million tonnes by 2029, with HEFA accounting for 85%, AtJ for 6%, and Syngas-FT for 5%. The PtL pathway remains underdeveloped, contributing less than 1% to the capacity.

Passenger and Cargo Traffic

• Passenger traffic has shown resilience, with global RPKs recovering to 85.9% of Q1 2019 levels in 2023, up from 68.5% in 2022. This is attributed to the lifting of travel restrictions and strong pent-up demand.
• Asia-Pacific and Europe-North America routes have seen the most significant recovery, with Asia-Pacific international RPKs increasing by 339.2% compared to the previous year.
• Domestic passenger traffic has recovered more rapidly than international, with global domestic RPKs at 98.0% of 2019 levels, and China's domestic RPKs at 91.6%.
• Passenger load factors are close to 2019 levels, with Africa and the Middle East outperforming pre-pandemic figures by 3.3% and 5.8% respectively.

Cargo Traffic

• Global air cargo demand is expected to remain weak in 2023, with CTKs still below 2022 levels, despite some recovery in January.
• Asia-Pacific remains the largest air cargo market, but its market share has decreased from 34.5% in 2019 to 32.4% in 2022. North America has seen an increase in its share of global CTKs.
• European cargo traffic declined due to the war in Ukraine, with CTKs down by 11.5% compared to 2021.
• Capacity for cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs) increased in Q1 2023, driven by the return of passenger aircraft to service, while dedicated freighter capacity has been declining since late 2021.

Regional Outlook

• Africa and the Middle East: International connectivity has exceeded 2019 levels, with Africa at 104% and the Middle East at 98% in March 2023.
• Americas: The region is expected to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, with Latin America & the Caribbean also on track for full recovery.
• Asia Pacific: The region is projected to recover to 2019 levels by 2024, supported by the recent reopening of China.
• Europe: International connectivity is at 87% of 2019 levels, with a slower recovery compared to other regions.

Key Information

• The Global Air Connectivity Index has recovered to 79.4% of pre-pandemic levels for international connectivity and 95.8% for domestic by March 2023.
• China's reopening has had a significant impact on both domestic and international passenger traffic, especially in the Asia-Pacific region.
• SAF offtake agreements are a key indicator of the industry's move towards sustainability, with AtJ contributing the most to the projected volume of SAF.
• Economic uncertainty and global inflation continue to pose challenges for the air transport industry, with risks skewed to the downside.
• Aircraft deliveries have been increasing, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, signaling a return to pre-pandemic levels of capacity expansion.

Conclusion

The air transport industry is showing signs of recovery, with passenger traffic nearing 2019 levels and cargo traffic fluctuating amid economic headwinds. The push towards Sustainable Aviation Fuel is gaining momentum, although the transition to net-zero remains in its early stages. The global economy and trade dynamics continue to influence the sector, with inflation, interest rates, and currency fluctuations playing a major role in shaping the outlook. While the recovery is uneven across regions, the overall trajectory remains positive, supported by the resumption of travel and economic resilience.