20180821-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_26页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides a summary of regional market insights and company performance updates for the week of 21 August 2018, with a focus on China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. It includes sector updates, company results, key indices, corporate events, and valuation insights.
Main Points by Region
China
- Steel Sector:
- Key Update: Potential early implementation of winter production curbs in Tangshan, expected to start on 1 Sep 18, with a minimum 50% production cut.
- Market Impact: The news has led to a significant rise in rebar futures, with a 3.3% increase on 17 August. Rebar price growth reached 8.0% month-on-month.
- Utilization Rate: Tangshan's blast furnace utilization dropped to 51.2% in 2Q18, while national utilization decreased to 66.2% from 70.9% in the previous three months.
- Valuation: The steel sector is rated OVERWEIGHT due to undemanding valuations (0.9-1.1x 2018F P/B) and a tight supply outlook.
- Key Companies: Baosteel (600019 CH) and China Oriental Group (581 HK) are highlighted, with the latter being directly impacted by the production curbs.
Indonesia
- Astra International (ASII IJ):
- Update: Expected to gain market share in the automobile division during 2H18.
- Company Ratings: ASII is rated BUY with a target price of Rp9,200.
Malaysia
- Petronas Dagangan (PETD MK):
- 2Q18 Results: Core profits were in line with expectations, but slightly lower than 1Q18's lumpy stockpiling gains.
- Cash Position: Strong cash remains despite subsidies.
- Rating: HOLD with a target price of RM27.00.
Singapore
- Sheng Siong Group (SSG SP):
- Update: New store wins are on track to meet expectations.
- Rating: HOLD with a target price of S$1.14.
Thailand
- Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB):
- Update: Impressive earnings growth; upgraded to BUY with a target price of Bt30.00.
- Thai Vegetable Oil (TVO TB):
- 2H18 Outlook: Expected to be less exciting; downgraded to HOLD with a target price of Bt34.50.
Key Indices Performance (21 August 2018)
| Index | Previous Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 25758.7 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 4.2 |
| S&P 500 | 2857.1 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 6.9 |
| FTSE 100 | 7591.3 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1.1 | -1.3 |
| AS30 | 6435.1 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 4.3 |
| CSI 300 | 3267.3 | 1.2 | -3.6 | -6.5 | -18.9 |
| FSSTI | 3204.7 | -0.1 | -1.3 | -2.8 | -5.8 |
| HSCEI | 10632.4 | 1.1 | -1.2 | -0.5 | -9.2 |
| HSI | 27598.0 | 1.4 | -1.2 | -2.2 | -7.8 |
| JCI | 5892.2 | 1.9 | -3.0 | 0.3 | -7.3 |
| KLCI | 1787.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.9 | -0.5 |
| KOSPI | 2247.9 | 0.0 | -1.5 | -1.8 | -8.9 |
| Nikkei 225 | 22199.0 | -0.3 | 1.6 | -2.2 | -2.5 |
| SET | 1701.4 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 1.8 | -3.0 |
| TWSE | 10699.1 | 0.1 | -0.5 | -2.1 | 0.5 |
| BDI | 1723 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 26.1 |
| CPO (RM/ml) | 2189 | 0.9 | -0.8 | 1.5 | -8.4 |
| Brent Crude | 72 | 0.5 | -0.6 | -1.2 | 8.0 |
Top Picks and Recommendations
BUY
- Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019 CH): Target Price HK$9.53, Upside 14.1%
- Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ): Target Price IJ 85,000, Upside 16.0%
- PP Persero (PTPP IJ): Target Price IJ 3,700, Upside 103.3%
- Bumi Armada (BAB MK): Target Price MK 1.06, Upside 51.4%
- OCBC (OCBC SP): Target Price SP 13.68, Upside 22.3%
- SingTel (ST SP): Target Price SP 3.98, Upside 28.8%
- Siam Cement (SCC TB): Target Price TB 530, Upside 15.2%
SELL
- Hartalega (HART MK): Target Price MK 4.02, Downside 41.4%
Key Assumptions
| Country/Region | GDP Growth (yoy) | 2017 | 2018F | 2019F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Euro Zone | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| Japan | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Singapore | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Malaysia | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 5.3 |
| Thailand | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| Indonesia | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| Hong Kong | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.8 |
| China | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 6.2 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2,783 | 2,783 | 2,400 | 2,500 |
| Brent Crude | 55.00 | 55.00 | 67.00 | 66.50 |
Corporate Events
- Greater China 2H18 Strategy and Outlook: Bangkok, 20-22 Aug 18
- Roadshow with Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK): Taipei, 21-22 Aug 18
- Group Meeting with Xstep International Holdings (1368 HK): Hong Kong, 24 Aug 18
- Group Meeting with YiChang HEC ChangJiang Pharmaceutical (1558 HK): Hong Kong, 28 Aug 18
- Roadshow with China Traditional Chinese Medicine Holdings (570 HK): Shanghai, 30-31 Aug 18
- Roadshow with Bright Scholar Education Holdings Limited (BEDU US): Singapore, 3 Sep 18; Kuala Lumpur, 4 Sep 18
- UOB Kay Hian Asian Gems Conference: Singapore, 9-10 Oct 18
- UOB Kay Hian Annual Regional 1H2019 Strategy Conference: Kuala Lumpur, 13 Nov 18
CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK)
1H18 Results
- Net Profit Growth: 41.1% yoy
- Revenue Growth: 49.8% yoy
- Pipeline Progress: Better-than-expected development through in-licensing and in-house R&D
- Oncology Segment: Sales grew by 92% in 2019 and 54% in 2020, driven by products like Duomeisu, Jinyouli, and Keaili
- Generic Drugs: Sales increased by 42.3% yoy, attributed to BE test approvals and pricing changes
- Vitamin C: Sales growth has been strong, but expected to slow in 2H18 due to price pressure
Valuation and Recommendation
- Target Price: HK$24.36, Upside +36.7%
- Valuation Methodology: Based on SOTP (Sum of the Parts) valuation, including:
- 24x 2019F PE for existing drugs
- NAV-derived pipeline value of HK$7.5/share
Key Financials
| Metric | 2017 | 2018F | 2019F | 2020F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Turnover (HK$m) | 15,462.5 | 20,246.6 | 25,969.7 | 31,590.2 |
| EBITDA (HK$m) | 4,198.2 | 4,803.3 | 5,834.8 | 7,170.7 |
| Net Profit (HK$m) | 2,770.5 | 3,495.4 | 4,315.2 | 5,376.1 |
| EPS (HK$) | 11.15 | 15.11 | 21.5 | 29.68 |
| PE (x) | 39.2 | 31.2 | 25.3 | 20.4 |
| P/B (x) | 7.1 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 4.5 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 25.1 | 22.0 | 18.1 | 14.7 |
Earnings Revision
- Revised 2018-19 net profit forecasts down by 5% and 6% respectively due to declining Vitamin C tailwinds.
Analysts
-
Sandra Huang: +8621 5404 7225 ext.804, sandrahuang@uobkayhian.com
-
Neo Chen: +8621 5404 7225 ext.810, neochen@uobkayhian.com
-
Alex Jiang: +852 2236 6749, alexjiang@uobkayhian.com
-
Michael Cheung: +852 2826 4857, Michael.cheung@uobkayhian.com.hk
Conclusion
The document outlines a range of market insights and company updates, emphasizing the potential for steel price support due to production curbs in China, strong performance from CSPC Pharmaceutical Group in its oncology and generic drug segments, and the outlook for other companies in the region. It also provides a detailed valuation for CSPC, with a maintained BUY rating, and highlights key corporate events for the upcoming months.
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