期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-2015number4_21页_4mb

NBER Reporter Summary

Core Content

The NBER Reporter is a quarterly publication by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private, nonprofit research organization founded in 1920. It provides a summary of NBER research and highlights key topics such as fiscal policy, economic measurement, and the impact of technological change on growth and productivity. The document also outlines the structure of the NBER, its leadership, and the ongoing challenges in measuring the modern economy.

Main Points

• NBER Overview:

  • Founded in 1920, the NBER is dedicated to objective quantitative analysis of the American economy.
  • It is supported by individuals, corporations, and private foundations to ensure independence and flexibility in research.
  • The NBER has a board of directors and officers, including President and CEO James M. Poterba.

• Challenges in Measuring the Economy:

  • The CRIW (Conference on Research in Income and Wealth) has been addressing the challenges of measuring the 21st-century economy, particularly due to the rapid technological changes.
  • The GDP as an aggregate measure of goods and services has become less accurate due to the introduction of new products and services, especially in the information technology sector.

• Quality Change and New Goods:

  • The quality change problem affects GDP measurement as improvements in product quality are often not captured in official statistics.
  • New goods are particularly difficult to measure because there are no prior versions for comparison, leading to potential underestimation of their value.
  • Examples include personal computers and Internet applications, which have had significant economic impacts but are not fully reflected in GDP figures.

• Service Sector Measurement:

  • The service sector constitutes a large portion of the U.S. economy and is difficult to measure due to the subjective nature of many services and the lack of clear units for output measurement.
  • Zvi Griliches and Barry Bosworth have highlighted the productivity slowdown in the service sector, which may be due to Baumol's disease and measurement difficulties.
  • The outcomes movement in health economics attempts to measure the impact of medical care rather than just the amount spent.

• Education Sector:

  • The education sector has seen increases in educational attainment and expenditure, but measuring educational outcomes is complex.
  • Test scores are only one part of the educational process, and non-cognitive skills also play a significant role.
  • IT innovations such as online education may offer new opportunities but are not yet fully captured in traditional measures.

• Financial Services:

  • The financial services sector has undergone significant changes due to the IT revolution, including securitized lending and financial derivatives.
  • The financial crisis highlighted the need for better measurement of financial intermediation and wealth.
  • CRIW has been working to improve the accuracy and comprehensiveness of financial data.

• Intangible Capital:

  • The intangible capital (e.g., R&D, brand equity, worker training) has become a dominant source of business capital formation.
  • Tangible capital investment has declined, while intangible investment has increased significantly.
  • The Bureau of Economic Analysis has made progress in incorporating own-account R&D into national accounts.

• Labor Market Dynamics:

  • The labor market is changing due to technological advancements, particularly in the demand for non-routine skills.
  • Outsourcing, job security, and wage inequality are important issues.
  • The gig economy is emerging, with more Americans working on a project-by-project basis.

• Globalization:

  • Globalization has affected the measurement of international trade and services.
  • The delivery of services is becoming more globalized due to information and communication technologies.
  • This has introduced new challenges in measuring prices, quantities, and currencies in international trade.

Key Information

• The CRIW has produced 24 conference volumes since the 1930s.
• Charles R. Hulten has been a key figure in the CRIW, contributing to price measurement, intangible capital, and productivity analysis.
• The NBER and CRIW have been working to improve the accuracy of economic data, especially in the service and technology sectors.
• The GDP is being re-evaluated due to the underestimation of new goods and services.
• Technological progress in areas such as health care, education, and finance has not been fully captured in traditional economic indicators.

Conclusion

The NBER Reporter highlights the ongoing challenges in measuring the modern economy, particularly due to the impact of technology and the complexity of service sectors. The CRIW has been at the forefront of addressing these issues, focusing on quality change, new goods, intangible capital, and globalization. These efforts are crucial for understanding economic growth and policy implications in the 21st century.