期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Summer1988_52页_1mb

报告摘要

NBER Reporter Summary: Summer 1988

Core Content

The NBER Reporter from Summer 1988 provides an overview of NBER research on Japan, focusing on economic relations between the United States and Japan, exchange rates, competitiveness, and labor markets. It also outlines ongoing research projects and recent working papers.

Main Topics and Key Findings

Macroeconomic Causes of Trade Balances

Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. and other developed countries is driven by the need to earn foreign exchange for oil and raw material imports.
Until the early 1980s, the U.S. and Japan had roughly balanced current accounts, but since then, the U.S. has experienced a significant trade deficit, while Japan's surplus has grown.
William F. Branson and Martin Feldstein found that the large U.S. budget deficit contributed to the dollar's appreciation and the resulting trade deficit.
John A. Rizzo confirmed that Japan's current account surplus was due to a decrease in its government budget deficit and lower domestic private investment.
Paul R. Krugman analyzed how declining energy prices affected Japan's trade patterns, while Bernheim found that U.S. fiscal policy had a measurable effect on its trade deficit, but Japanese fiscal policy did not significantly affect its trade balance due to capital controls.

Exchange Rate Fluctuations

Exchange rate movements significantly affect trade competitiveness and economic performance.
Takatoshi Ito showed that Japanese capital controls before 1980 created interest rate differentials, raising the yen's value. After controls were relaxed, these differentials decreased.
Jeffrey A. Frankel and Kenneth A. Froot highlighted the role of expectations in exchange rate movements, noting that a 1% dollar appreciation led to a 0.24% expectation of further appreciation, but a 0.34% depreciation over a year.
Richard C. Marston argued that Japan's faster productivity growth in manufacturing made U.S. goods less competitive if exchange rates remained constant. He suggested that the dollar may need to depreciate steadily to maintain competitiveness.

Competitiveness

Factors like labor costs, capital costs, R&D investment, and trade barriers influence U.S. competitiveness with Japan.
Melvyn A. Fuss and Leonard Waverman found that U.S. automakers had higher costs than Japanese firms in 1980, mainly due to excess capacity. Japanese competitiveness stemmed from quality and size advantages rather than cost differences.
The Voluntary Restraint Agreement (VRA) limited Japanese auto imports to the U.S., affecting U.S. competitiveness.
Ryuzo Sato compared R&D spending in the U.S. and Japan, noting that the U.S. focused more on defense and aerospace, while Japan focused on chemical, electronics, and automotive industries, contributing to Japan's higher productivity growth.
Rachel McCulloch observed that the U.S. share of high-tech exports increased in the 1980s, but its trade balance in these products worsened. Japan's share of high-tech exports rose from 7% to 20%, reducing European market share.
Albert Ando and Alan J. Auerbach found that Japanese firms had a lower cost of capital compared to U.S. firms, possibly due to higher saving rates, not taxation differences.

Labor Markets

Japanese labor markets are more flexible than U.S. markets in response to economic shocks, with wages and prices more sensitive to output fluctuations.
Robert J. Gordon found that Japan's more flexible labor market helped it avoid stagflation after the oil crises.
Herschel I. Grossman and William Haraf suggested that the annual national wage-setting (Shunto) in Japan contributes to wage flexibility.
Jacob A. Mincer and Yoshio Higuchi noted that Japanese manufacturing workers have lower turnover rates due to more on-the-job training and faster wage growth with seniority.
Tadashi and Tetsuji Yamada studied the labor supply and fertility decisions of Japanese women, finding that labor market conditions strongly influence retirement probabilities and that full-time workers are more affected by Social Security benefits.

Ongoing Research

The NBER continues to study Japanese saving rates, investment, and capital costs through projects led by Ando, Auerbach, and Hayashi.
Paul R. Krugman is organizing a project on U.S.-Japanese trade and investment in the 1990s.
The NBER holds regular meetings and workshops with Japanese and American economists, including joint sessions with the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF) and the Foundation for Advanced Information and Research (FAIR).
Research is supported by grants from the Ford Foundation, Mitsubishi Trust Bank, NIRA, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation, and the Pew Charitable Trusts.

Research Summaries

Understanding Over- and Underemployment

Kevin Lang discusses the prevalence of hour constraints in the labor market, noting that:
- Only 15% of prime-age male wage earners in the U.S. and Canada can vary their hours freely.
- 43% cannot vary their hours at all.
- 15% can work more but not less.
- 27% can work less but not more.
Over 40% of wage earners are dissatisfied with their hours, with most wanting to work more.
In Canada, the proportion of workers wanting to change their hours is even higher, with about half of prime-age workers expressing a desire for different working hours.
These findings suggest that underemployment and overemployment are real phenomena, not just artifacts of survey design.

Supporting Information

The NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization founded in 1920.
The Reporter is for informational purposes only and not copyrighted.
The NBER Profiles, Conferences, and Working Papers sections provide additional insights into ongoing research and events.