各国化石燃料生产计划与全球气候目标“严重不同步”-104页_12mb

The Production Gap Report Summary

Core Content

The Production Gap Report 2021 highlights the significant discrepancy between governments' planned fossil fuel production and the levels required to align with the Paris Agreement goals of limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. It underscores the urgent need for a rapid and equitable reduction in fossil fuel production to avoid catastrophic climate impacts.

Main Findings

• Global Production Gap: Governments plan to produce more than twice the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 compared to what would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, and 45% more than what is consistent with 2°C.
• By 2040: The gap widens further, with projected increases of 190% in fossil fuel production for 1.5°C and 89% for 2°C.
• Coal Gap: The production gap is widest for coal, with governments planning to produce 240% more than needed for 1.5°C.
• Fossil Fuel Consumption: Despite some progress in climate ambition, most governments have not made concrete plans to reduce fossil fuel production, even though their emission reduction goals suggest otherwise.
• G20 Funding: Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, G20 countries have allocated nearly USD 300 billion to fossil fuel activities, more than they have to clean energy.
• Public Finance Shift: International public finance for fossil fuel production from G20 countries and multilateral development banks (MDBs) has significantly decreased in recent years, with many MDBs and G20 development finance institutions (DFIs) excluding future fossil fuel investments in their policies.

Key Countries' Plans

The report provides country profiles for 15 major fossil fuel-producing nations, summarizing their:

• National climate ambitions (e.g., net-zero targets)
• Projections and support for fossil fuel production
• Emerging policies and discussions on transitioning to a low-carbon economy

Main Arguments

• Fossil Fuel Production is Still Rising: Despite growing climate ambitions, most major oil and gas producers are planning to increase production through 2030 or beyond. Some coal producers are also increasing production.
• Need for Just Transition: Governments must ensure that the transition from fossil fuels is just and equitable, protecting workers, communities, and stakeholders affected by the decline.
• Transparency is Critical: The report emphasizes the importance of transparency in government and corporate actions regarding fossil fuel production and support. This is essential for tracking progress and holding governments accountable.
• Limitations of Current Measures: While some governments are focusing on carbon capture and storage (CCS) and reducing emissions from extraction, these measures are not sufficient to address the production gap. A global wind-down of fossil fuel production is necessary.
• Global Warming is Intensifying: The latest IPCC report highlights the urgency of the climate crisis, reinforcing the need for immediate and sustained action to close the production gap.

Recommendations

• Governments should align fossil fuel production plans with the Paris Agreement goals.
• Transparency in production and support plans is essential for effective climate action.
• Public finance should be redirected from fossil fuels to clean energy.
• A just transition must be ensured to minimize the impact on vulnerable communities and workers.

Conclusion

The Production Gap Report 2021 serves as a call to action for governments to reassess their fossil fuel production plans and take immediate steps to align with the 1.5°C and 2°C warming limits. It stresses that without a sustained and steep reduction in fossil fuel production, the world will not meet its climate goals, and the risk of stranded assets and climate catastrophe will increase.

Authors and Contributors

• Lead Authors: Ploy Achakulwisut, Michael Lazarus, Miquel Muñoz Cabré
• Reviewers: A wide range of experts from research institutions, NGOs, and international organizations, including UNEP, E3G, ODI, IISD, and others.
• Supporting Organizations: Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), Overseas Development Institute (ODI), Energy Charter Secretariat (E3G), and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

References

The report draws on publicly available government, intergovernmental, and research sources, including national energy plans, climate strategies, and financial commitments.

Abbreviations

• AFOLU: Agriculture, forestry, and other land use
• Bcf: Billion cubic feet
• BECCS: Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage
• CCS: Carbon capture and storage
• CH₄: Methane
• CO₂: Carbon dioxide
• CO₂e: Carbon dioxide equivalent
• CPP: Countries' plans and projections
• DFI: Development finance institution
• ECA: Export credit agency
• EJ: Exajoule
• EU: European Union
• G20: Group of Twenty
• GHG: Greenhouse gas
• Gt: Gigatonne
• IEA: International Energy Agency
• IMF: International Monetary Fund
• IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• LT-LEDS: Long-term, low-emission development strategies
• NDC: Nationally determined contribution
• NOC: National oil and gas company
• NZE: Net Zero by 2050
• PFI: Public finance institution
• PGR: Production Gap Report
• SDG: Sustainable Development Goal
• SOE: State-owned enterprise
• TCFD: Taskforce for Climate-Related Financial Disclosures
• UNEP: United Nations Environment Programme
• UNFCCC: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
• WTO: World Trade Organization

Erratum

An earlier version of the report incorrectly referenced "1,149 tonnes" instead of "1,149 million tonnes" on page 44. This has been corrected.