2017年-PIIE彼得森国际经济研究所_This_Far_and_No_Farther__Nudging_Agricultural_Reform_Forward_15页_509kb

Summary of "This Far and No Farther? Nudging Agricultural Reform Forward"

Core Content

This policy brief analyzes the progress and challenges in global agricultural trade negotiations, particularly focusing on the stalled Doha Round and the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA). It evaluates the current state of agricultural trade policies and proposes a framework for further reform to enhance market access, reduce export subsidies, and reform domestic support.

Main Objectives of Agricultural Trade Negotiations

The primary goal of the current negotiations is to determine whether to continue the integration of agriculture into the multilateral trading system (MTS) or to allow more flexibility for domestic policies. The URAA laid the groundwork for this process, but significant liberalization has not yet occurred, leading to ongoing market distortions.

Key Areas of Agricultural Reform

1. Market Access

• Progress: WTO members have imposed bound tariffs and reduced them according to schedules. However, tariffs remain high, especially in developed countries.
• Global Average: 62% of agricultural tariffs.
• OECD Countries: Tariffs are generally lower than the global average, but some sectors (e.g., dairy, grains) still have high protection.
• Non-OECD Countries: Have higher average tariffs, but less variation across products.
• Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs): Used to open markets, but often remain unfilled or locked into preferential agreements.
• Proposals:
  • Harbinson Draft: Suggested a graduated formula for tariff cuts and a "special product" category.
  • US-EU Proposal: Categorizes products into three groups (Swiss Formula, Uruguay Round cuts, duty-free entry) to allow for differentiated treatment.
  • G-22 Proposal: Supports a "cafeteria" approach for developed countries but requires more TRQ expansion and tariff reduction.
  • Castillo and Derbez Drafts: Retain the US-EU framework but offer more flexibility for developing countries.
• Outstanding Issues:
  • Depth of tariff cuts.
  • Ability to avoid market opening through product allocation.
  • The use of "special product" categories.

2. Export Subsidies

• URAA Impact: Prohibited new export subsidies and limited existing ones.
• Current Status: Export subsidies still distort markets, particularly in dairy and beef.
• Global Expenditure (1995–2000): Over $36 billion, with the EU accounting for nearly 90%.
• Proposals:
  • Phase-out of Export Subsidies: Required for developing countries.
  • Tariff Cap and TRQ Options: Suggested as alternatives to tariff reductions.
• Challenges:
  • The EU is the largest user of export subsidies.
  • The US uses export credit programs and food aid.

3. Domestic Support

• URAA Categories:
  • Green Box: Minimal trade distortion.
  • Blue Box: Linked to production controls.
  • Amber Box: Trade-distorting support, subject to limits.
• Current Status: Many countries have not fully utilized their domestic support commitments, often due to the use of the blue box and de minimis provisions.
• Proposals:
  • G-22: Calls for significant reductions in trade-distorting subsidies.
  • Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM): Proposed as a new safeguard for developing countries, involving price and quantity triggers.
• Controversies:
  • The SSG (Special Agricultural Safeguard) has been criticized for being too limited in scope for developing countries.
  • There is debate over whether a broad safeguard is better than a specific one.

Challenges and Concerns

• Continuity of Reform: The Doha Round aimed to continue the process of integrating agriculture into the MTS, but progress has been limited.
• Peace Clause: Expired in 2003, and its renewal was conditional on substantial progress.
• Political Will: The lack of significant liberalization may be due to the weak political will for reform.
• Two-Tier System: Concerns about developing countries being allowed to opt out of trade liberalization, perpetuating inequality.
• Tariff Escalation: A key issue is the need to reduce tariff escalation to improve market access for developing countries.

Proposed New Framework

A constructive framework for the next stage of reform should:

• Cap tariffs at a reasonable level.
• Reduce the highest tariffs the most.
• Enlarge TRQs and reform their administration to encourage quota filling.
• Allow duty-free access for least developed countries (LDCs) to developed-country markets.
• Phase out export subsidies for developing countries.
• Significantly reduce trade-distorting domestic subsidies beyond URAA levels.
• Prevent circumvention of domestic support limits by redefining the blue box.
• Ensure minimal trade distortion in green box subsidies.
• Promote full participation of developing countries, respecting their capacity and needs.
• Avoid special rules that allow opt-out from trade liberalization.

Recent Developments and Outlook

• Cancún Ministerial: Significant time was spent discussing agricultural issues, but no agreement was reached.
• Harbinson Draft: Suggested a three-tranche approach for tariff reductions.
• G-22 and Derbez Draft: Proposed more ambitious reductions and TRQ expansion.
• Castillo Paper: Introduced the idea of a special safeguard mechanism (SSM) for developing countries.
• Negotiations Restart: Set to resume under new chairpersons in early 2004.

Conclusion

The negotiations on agricultural trade reform have made some progress but remain stalled due to conflicting interests and lack of political consensus. A new framework must address the remaining distortions in market access, export subsidies, and domestic support while ensuring that developing countries are not left behind. The success of the Doha Round will depend on the willingness of countries to commit to meaningful liberalization and the creation of a fair and inclusive system.