2018年-PIIE彼得森国际经济研究所_Trade_Policy_toward_Supply_Chains_after_the_Great_Recession_23页_387kb

Summary of "18-13 Trade Policy toward Supply Chains after the Great Recession"

Core Content

This paper, authored by Chad P. Bown, analyzes the evolution of trade policy toward cross-border supply chains, particularly focusing on the treatment of intermediate inputs compared to final goods, from 2001 to 2016. It highlights how trade policies, especially temporary trade barriers (TTBs), have shifted in their application over time, impacting the development and sustainability of global supply chains.

Main Findings

• Import Tariffs: There is no significant evidence of changes in applied import tariffs among G-20 economies during the post-Great Recession period (2008-2016). However, there has been a modest increase in import protection through non-tariff measures.
• TTBs Increase: Temporary trade barriers (antidumping, countervailing duties, and safeguards) have increased in use, especially targeting intermediate inputs. This shift is more pronounced after the Great Recession.
• China as a Target: China has remained a primary target of TTBs since its WTO accession in 2001. The share of Chinese imports subject to TTBs increased during the Great Recession.
• Shift in Protection: Protection has increasingly been applied to intermediate inputs rather than final goods, even from non-China sources, indicating a broader trend in trade policy.
• Sectoral Trends: The metals sector (steel and aluminum) has historically been a major area for TTBs, but other sectors such as wood products, food, and electronics have also seen increases in TTB coverage.

Key Policy Instruments

• Antidumping Duties: Imposed to counteract unfair trade practices.
• Countervailing Duties: Applied to offset illegal subsidies.
• Safeguards: Used to restrict imports temporarily when they cause injury to domestic industries.

Changes in Policy Behavior

• Post-2010 Trend: After 2010, G-20 countries increased the use of TTBs on non-China imports, reversing a post-2001 trend.
• Intermediate Inputs Protection: The gap between TTB coverage of intermediate inputs and final goods widened, suggesting a growing preference for protecting intermediate goods.
• Political and Economic Factors: The paper suggests that political developments (e.g., Brexit, Trump's election) and economic slowdowns may have contributed to this shift in trade policy.

Economic Implications

• Impact on Supply Chains: Increased protection on intermediate inputs may hinder the development of cross-border supply chains.
• Productivity and Growth: Higher input costs could negatively affect productivity, growth, and trade in downstream industries.
• Cascading Protectionism: The paper warns of the potential for increased protectionism to create a cycle of further trade barriers.
• Quasi-Permanent Barriers: TTBs, although called temporary, often remain in place for long periods, becoming de facto trade barriers.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that while applied tariffs have remained largely unchanged, the use of TTBs has increased, particularly targeting intermediate inputs. This shift may have negative implications for global trade and supply chain development, especially in light of ongoing political and economic uncertainty.

References (Key Authors and Works)

• Bown, Chad P. – Author of the paper, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
• Bown and Crowley (2016) – Analyzed the empirical landscape of trade policy.
• Johnson and Noguera (2017) – Studied the development of supply chains using input-output techniques.
• Baldwin and Evenett (2009) – Examined the impact of the Great Recession on global trade and protectionism.
• Melitz and Redding (2014) – Highlighted the welfare implications of trade protection in sequential production.
• Handley and Limão (2015, 2017) – Explored the effects of policy uncertainty on trade and welfare.

Data and Methodology

• Data Sources: The paper uses data from the G-20 countries, focusing on the use of TTBs and applied tariffs.
• Methodology: The analysis includes trade-weighted shares of TTB coverage and examines the trend of TTB use over time, particularly in the context of the Great Recession. It also considers the role of preferential trade agreements and the economic implications of trade policy shifts.

Policy Recommendations

• The paper suggests that the increasing use of TTBs may be a response to economic and political factors, including the slow growth of the global economy and the desire to protect domestic industries.
• It highlights the need for further research to understand the underlying causes and long-term implications of this trend in trade policy.