20131014-招商证券_香港_-Hong_Kong_Morning_Daily_14页_211kb

报告摘要

Sales Performance: Geely's September sales missed expectations due to a decrease in export sales caused by political instability in Egypt and other Middle East countries, as well as a decline in sales of old models.
New Model Launch: No new model is expected to be launched in 2013.
Sales Estimate Revision: The full-year sales volume estimate for 2013 was revised down from 574,000 units to 535,000 units.
EPS Projections: Revised 2013-2015E EPS to RMB0.30, 0.35, and 0.37, respectively (previous: RMB0.33, 0.39, and 0.42).
Valuation Adjustment: The 12-month target price (TP) was adjusted from HK$5.40 to HK$4.93, based on a 13x P/E valuation.
Rating: Maintained a "BUY" rating.

Market Reaction: Chinese Internet stocks fell sharply this week due to investor risk aversion and profit-taking, influenced by concerns over the U.S. government shutdown.
Performance: U.S. listed China Internet companies fell an average of $6.82%$ on a single day, more than the NASDAQ index.
Fundamental Outlook: Despite short-term volatility, healthy fundamentals are expected to support a future rebound in share prices.
Stock Recommendations: Buy ratings are maintained for EDU, BIDU, QIHU, NTES, and SINA.
Historical Context: China Internet stocks have historically been the hardest hit during market crashes, indicating their sensitivity to global market conditions.

Event: The ECB and PBOC signed a RMB 350 bn (EUR 45 bn) currency swap line, valid for three years.
Significance: This marks a significant step in RMB internationalization, especially in Europe, and improves the RMB's global status.
Previous Deals: China had already signed similar agreements with the Bank of England, Hungary, Albania, and Iceland.
Benefits:
- Promotes bilateral trade and investment by allowing direct RMB-EUR contracts.
- Reduces exchange rate risk and costs.
- Provides liquidity for Eurozone banks and encourages RMB usage in asset portfolios.
Symbolism Over Substance: The swap is seen more as a symbolic move than a major financial tool, as the RMB is not yet freely convertible.
Offshore Development: Likely to be centered in London, given its role as the world's leading FX center.
Total Swap Deals: China now has over RMB 2.5 tn in currency swap deals globally.

Eurozone Data Trends: Continued signs of moderate growth in Germany, weak growth in France, and weak economic indicators in Italy.
Key Data:
- Germany's August factory orders fell by $-0.3%$ MoM.
- France's August IP grew by $0.2%$ MoM but fell $-2.9%$ YoY.
- Italy's August IP fell $-0.3%$ MoM and $-4.6%$ YoY.
Inflation: Low CPI inflation in Germany, Spain, and Italy supports continued accommodative monetary policy from the ECB.
Unemployment: Greece's July unemployment rate rose to 27.6%, expected to remain between 27-30% in the coming year.
Market Impact: Negative sentiment is expected to fade, allowing for a re-evaluation of fundamentals and potential share price rebound.

Sales Performance: September sales showed a moderate recovery, with contracted sales area and revenue up 8.94% and 23.92% YoY.
Supply and Demand: Property supply increased in September, but transaction pressure persists due to mortgage lending restrictions.
Guidance: The company expects a 9%–10% growth in sales in 2013.
Target Price: Based on a 9x dynamic 2013 P/E, the target share price is set at RMB13.77.
Rating: Maintained "Strong Buy-A" investment rating.

Reform Focus: Emphasis on innovation and improving corporate governance in the securities industry.
Earnings Growth: Regulators aim for a 10-year growth of 10 times in net earnings, reaching over RMB200 billion with a CAGR of 21%.
Conditions for Reform:
- Shift in capital regulation from net capital to core capital adequacy ratio.
- Introduction of long-term investors and equity incentive plans.
- Focus on client value chains and enhancing research pricing, sales network, and high-end trading capabilities.
- Encouragement of innovation with tolerance for trial and error.
Threats: Potential entrants and substitutes pose risks to the securities industry.
Sector Outlook: Reforms are expected to complement each other, with a focus on stable earnings and innovation.

Key Highlights:
- Geely Auto (175): Buy rating, target price HK$5.04, upside potential 23%, EPS RMB0.32, 0.36, 0.38, P/E 10.2, 9.1, 8.6, 1-month performance 0.5%.
- Intime (1833): Sales growth in line with estimates, target price RMB13.77, upside potential not specified, rating "Strong Buy-A".
- Poly Real Estate Group (600048): Sales recovered moderately, with contracted sales area and revenue up 8.94% and 23.92% YoY, target price not specified, rating "Strong Buy-A".
- Other Stocks: Various stocks are reviewed with their respective ratings, target prices, and performance metrics.

HK Indices:
- HSI: Last price 23,218.32, change +267.0, % change +1.16.
- Finance: Last price 32,102.00, change +386.9, % change +1.22.
- Properties: Last price 30,866.94, change +355.0, % change +1.16.
- Others: Various indices with different performance levels.
World Indices:
- FTSE 100: Last price 6,487.19, change +56.70, % change +0.88.
- DAX 30: Last price 8,724.83, change +39.06, % change +0.45.
- CAC 40: Last price 4,219.98, change +1.87, % change +0.04.
- DJIA: Last price 15,237.11, change +111.04, % change +0.73.
- S&P 500: Last price 1,703.20, change +10.64, % change +0.63.
- NASDAQ: Last price 3,791.87, change +31.13, % change +0.83.
Asia-Pacific Indices:
- KOSPI: Last price 2,024.90, change +23.50, % change +1.17.
- TWSE: Last price 8,349.37, change +4.64, % change +0.06.
- STI: Last price 3,179.71, change +9.80, % change +0.31.
- India BSE 30: Last price 20,528.59, change +255.68, % change +1.26.
- S&P/ASX 200: Last price 5,201.30, change -29.57, % change -0.57.

Geely: Sales missed expectations, revised sales and EPS forecasts, adjusted TP, and maintained "BUY" rating.
China Internet: Fundamentals support future rebound, with Buy ratings for key stocks.
RMB Internationalization: The ECB-PBOC swap deal is a significant step, promoting RMB use in trade and investment.
Eurozone: Continued weak economic indicators, low inflation, and rising unemployment.
Intime: Sales recovery, strong fundamentals, and maintained "Strong Buy-A" rating.
Securities Reforms: Focus on innovation and corporate governance, with key players like CITIC Securities and Haitong Securities highlighted.
Stocks: Various HK and A-share stocks are reviewed with ratings, target prices, and performance metrics.